Soon after Hamas’s 7 October attack and Israel’s retaliatory bombing campaign in Gaza, pundits began debating the odds of escalation. For its part, the Biden administration has tried to prevent the fighting between Hamas and the [Israel](https://www.theguardian.com/world/israel) Defense Forces (IDF) from spreading to other areas of the Middle East, if only to spare the roughly 45,000 US troops based there from another ill-fated war. [ From Gaza to Ukraine, brute force threatens to triumph in 2024 ](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/jan/06/from-gaza-to-ukraine-brute-force-threatens-to-triumph-in-2024) “Escalation” lacks a singular meaning. For some, it connotes a vast increase in death and destruction after at least one warring party starts using weapons that are far more powerful than it had employed previously. For others, escalation refers to wars that spread because additional countries or armed groups decide to join the fighting. Israel’s war in Gaza has already escalated in both these respects, albeit only to a limited extent. The magnitude and scale of the firepower that the IDF has used in Gaza has increased substantially, even before its ground invasion began at the end of October. According to [a recent estimate](https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/gaza-destruction-bombing-israel-aa528542), 70% of Gaza’s homes and half of all other buildings are damaged or demolished. More than 22,000 residents have been killed and [85%](https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2023/12/israel-working-expel-civilian-population-gaza-un-expert-warns) have been displaced from their homes – and within 90 days. The magnitude of the devastation has prompted comparisons to the Allied bombing of [Dresden and Hamburg](https://www.ft.com/content/7b407c2e-8149-4d83-be01-72dcae8aee7b) during the second world war. The Israel-Hamas war has also expanded to other places. There are daily skirmishes along the Israel-Lebanon border between Israel and the Iran-aligned Shia militia Hezbollah. Approximately [150,000 people](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/04/world/middleeast/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-civilians.html) have fled northern Israel and southern Lebanon, and, despite American attempts at mediating a solution that would push Hezbollah further away from the border, the firefights [continue](https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-strike-on-southern-lebanon-takes-out-4-hezbollah-fighters-including-commander/). > The region’s major powers have not entered the fray. But there are plausible scenarios in which they could Furthermore, the IDF has been attacking Iranian proxies in Syrian-controlled territory, targeting [air defense systems](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hits-syrian-air-defence-base-southern-syria-intel-sources-2023-12-28/), weapons depots and even [senior Iranian generals](https://apnews.com/article/syria-israel-iran-irgc-damascus-airstrike-7ee8496d727ba69834002f0444515a36). In Yemen, the Houthis, another Iranian-linked militia, have attacked Red Sea shipping lanes more than two dozen times, prompting the US to create an international maritime coalition to maintain freedom of navigation and, along with 11 other nations, to [issue a warning](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/01/03/a-joint-statement-from-the-governments-of-the-united-states-australia-bahrain-belgium-canada-denmark-germany-italy-japan-netherlands-new-zealand-and-the-united-kingdom/?utm_source=twitter): cease or face the consequences. Still, the region’s major powers have not entered the fray. But there are plausible scenarios in which they could. One involves an Iranian attack on Israel, perhaps in response to increasing IDF strikes against Hezbollah or an Israeli military strike in Syria that kills numerous advisers or officers from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Israel has [already killed](https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-780016) several IRGC officers since the war in Gaza began, including, on Christmas Day, [Sayyed Razi Mousavi](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-air-strike-syria-kills-senior-iranian-revolutionary-guards-member-2023-12-25/), a general overseeing the supply of Iranian weapons to Hezbollah. Another pathway to escalation is Iranian retaliation for an American attack on the Iran-backed, Yemen-based Houthis, an option that the Biden administration [has reportedly considered](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/biden-officials-weigh-military-options-houthis-yemen-red-sea-rcna132179). Indeed, on 31 December, an American destroyer downed Houthi missiles that targeted a cargo ship in the Red Sea and then fired on Houthi boats that attacked the same vessel, killing the Houthi fighters onboard. However, incidents like these are not likely to compel [Iran](https://www.theguardian.com/world/iran) to take direct aim at Israel or American warships. Iranian leaders understand that Israel sees it as that country’s biggest threat and would retaliate in force if Iran made the reckless decision to target its territory. Plus, Iran could not exclude the possibility that the US would attack if Israel were bogged down in a two-front war. Above all else, Iranian leaders are rational actors concerned about preserving their state and will therefore avoid steps that could trigger a runaway spiral that drags their country into a war with Israel or the United States – one it would probably lose. > There’s no indication that pressure from ‘the street’ will force any major Arab country to intervene militarily to support Gazans The war could also spread if Israel attacked Iran in order to stop its support for [Hezbollah](https://www.theguardian.com/world/hezbollah), particularly if the latter launched a fusillade of rockets and missiles on Israeli cities and towns from southern Lebanon. But in practice, Hezbollah has chosen a middle-ground strategy, engaging in localized attacks against Israeli military posts along the border but nevertheless avoiding strikes on a scale that could cause significant Israeli casualties and lead to a full-scale war that Lebanon can’t absorb. And the IDF has demonstrated ample capacity to punish Hezbollah without having to take the drastic step of also striking Iran directly. The prospects of Arab countries entering the war are also slim. The huge death toll created by Israel’s relentless attacks on Gaza have produced outrage and sparked [demonstrations](https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/11/01/pay-attention-to-arab-public-response-to-israel-hamas-war-pub-90893%23:~:text=Protests%252520have%252520swept%252520across%252520the,assault%252520and%252520horrifying%252520living%252520conditions.) across the Arab world as well as [mounting opposition](https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/11/01/pay-attention-to-arab-public-response-to-israel-hamas-war-pub-90893%23:~:text=Protests%252520have%252520swept%252520across%252520the,assault%252520and%252520horrifying%252520living%252520conditions.) in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to the normalization of relations (past or prospective) with Israel. Yet there’s no indication that pressure from “the street” will force any major Arab country to intervene militarily to support Gazans. Arab states want the war in Gaza to end as soon as possible, which direct Arab participation would probably prevent. Furthermore, some of these states, notably Egypt, have little sympathy for Hamas. The war in Gaza is certainly horrifying, but the risks of it escalating remains low, even if they cannot be ruled out entirely. * Rajan Menon is the director of the grand strategy program at Defense Priorities, a professor emeritus of international relations at the City College of New York, and a senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies * Daniel R DePetris is a fellow at Defense Priorities and a syndicated foreign affairs columnist for the Chicago Tribune and Newsweek * _**Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a response of up to 300 words by email to be considered for publication in our [letters](https://www.theguardian.com/tone/letters) section, please [click here](mailto:[email protected]?body=Please%20include%20your%20name,%20full%20postal%20address%20and%20phone%20number%20with%20your%20letter%20below.%20Letters%20are%20usually%20published%20with%20the%20author%27s%20name%20and%20city/town/village.%20The%20rest%20of%20the%20information%20is%20for%20verification%20only%20and%20to%20contact%20you%20where%20necessary.).**_

We all woke on Friday to the news of [US/UK airstrikes](https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2024/jan/12/explosions-yemen-us-uk-launch-airstrikes-houthis-red-sea-attacks-video) on Yemen. Our TV screens were filled with images of RAF bombers taking off into a Mediterranean night sky, and seemingly random explosions briefly illuminating nameless, darkened landscapes, as in some slow-motion video game. But real strategic objectives are involved here, and real people: British and American pilots risking their lives, Yemenis on the ground beneath the bombs. It is a disconcertingly familiar set of images, evoking the US/UK/France bombing of [Syria in 2018](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/14/syria-air-strikes-us-uk-and-france-launch-attack-on-assad-regime), the British-French bombing of Muammar Gaddafi’s forces in [Libya in 2011](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/aug/25/libya-conflict-british-french-soldiers-rebels-sirte), and the “shock and awe” campaign in [Iraq in 2003](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/mar/19/2003-iraq-invasion-legacy-west-international-law-ukraine). How did these end? Not so well. But nor did the one that didn’t happen: the proposed Obama-led US/UK/France airstrikes on Bashar al-Assad’s forces after they used chemical weapons against their own population in 2013. In August 2013, I was UK national security adviser. I vividly remember sitting in the basement of No 10 one sunny Saturday afternoon, listening to a Barack Obama phone call to David Cameron. The US proposition was limited: “surgical” airstrikes on Syrian government forces, if possible as soon as Sunday evening. But UN inspectors were still in [Syria](https://www.theguardian.com/world/syria), and the timetable slipped, creating time for national security council and cabinet discussions and, fatefully, the recall of parliament. > Some saw this a strategic tipping point from which the west has never recovered As the public records will eventually show, there was a proper process. The MoD and the military crawled over the US plans and targets and concluded that, far from shock and awe, the proposition was, if anything, too limited, too surgical, and an insufficiently tough signal to Assad. The FCO analysed the likely international reaction. The lawyers built the case for the action being consistent with international law. At the NSC, solemn-faced cabinet ministers spoke in turn: most supported, two sat on the fence. It was the antithesis of much-criticised “sofa government”. And yet, in the end, what was it worth? In the House of Commons, MPs voted to absolve their consciences over their support for the 2003 Iraq invasion and the [day was lost by 13 votes](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/aug/30/cameron-mps-syria): the first time a British government had lost a vote on military action [since 1782](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/sep/01/how-cameron-lost-battle-syria-vote). A few days later, [Obama abandoned his plans](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/30/obama-strike-syria-britain-vote) for US airstrikes, settling for a deal involving Syrian promises to surrender their chemical weapons capability. Obama later asserted that was one of the best decisions he ever took: read [David Cameron’s autobiography](https://www.theguardian.com/books/2019/sep/22/for-the-record-david-cameron-review) for a sharply different view. The Assad government eventually won its civil war, at the cost of the comprehensive destruction of the country, while Russia and Iran extended their reach and influence. Some saw this as a strategic tipping point from which the west has never recovered. So, the historical precedents are discouraging. Interventions led to western forces getting bogged down in seemingly endless wars. Standing back surrendered territory and advantage to our enemies. Can the story be different this time? The case for action is strong. Some 15% of global trade passes through the Red Sea. [Houthi attacks](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/jan/11/global-trade-falls-houthi-attacks-merchant-ships-red-sea) might claim to single out shipping bound for Israeli ports, but the reality is that they are indiscriminate and target whoever is passing. And sending cargo vessels around the much longer Cape of Good Hope route adds hugely to shipping costs. According to Copenhagen-based shipping analyst Peter Sand, $1m worth of extra fuel per voyage. These extra costs surface at the shopping till and risk renewed inflation just as central banks are getting it under control. They would compound economic woes on both sides of the Atlantic. Biden’s ratings are under water in part because of widespread despair about the American economy, while the Conservatives are facing a headwind comprising low to non-existent growth, a cost of living crisis, high energy and mortgage costs and stubborn inflation. > Conservatives are facing a headwind comprising low to non-existent growth, a cost of living crisis, high energy and mortgage costs and stubborn inflation And surely two of the most powerful and advanced air forces in the world can see off some 20,000 [Houthi militia](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/12/yemen-houthi-rebels-who-are-they-what-attacking-us-uk-airstrikes-red-sea-crisis)? Well, maybe. The Saudis and Emiratis, with their expensive, western-supplied aircraft, spent seven years trying to bomb the Houthis into defeat and failed. US and UK airstrikes will certainly do substantial damage to Houthi capability, destroying radar stations, command and control centres and stocks of drones, missiles and helicopters. But they won’t get it all. The Iranians appear ready to pay for indefinite restocking. Some of the weapons of this particular war, such as drones and small, fast boats, are inexpensive and can be acquired in bulk. Yet, these weapons can do significant damage to large, expensive western vessels: we know from the Falklands how destructive a single missile can be. The 20-odd US warships in the eastern Mediterranean and Gulf will be costing billions. And the Americans know most of the shipping going through the Red Sea and Suez Canal is destined for European, not US, ports. All of which means that this is a high-risk operation, riven with uncertainty. Yet there is something old-fashioned, almost quixotic, about what Joe Biden and [Rishi Sunak](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/rishi-sunak) are doing. They may not realise it, but they are actually followers of the great 19th-century American naval strategist, Alfred Thayer Mahan, who wrote in his definitive work, _The Influence of Sea Power Upon History_: “Whoever rules the waves rules the world.” Moreover, they are standing up for the postwar world order. International law should prevail, western values should dominate, anarchy should be challenged, order be restored – and the sea lanes should be kept open. But in this age of the populist and the strongman, the political careers of Biden and Sunak hang by a thread. Both face elections within the next 12 months. Both are well behind in their opinion polls. This could be a turning point for one or the other. Or it could be the last gasp of the old order. I for one hope their intervention succeeds. Sir Kim Darroch was UK national security adviser from 2012-2015 and British ambassador to the US from 2016-2019 _**Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a letter of up to 250 words to be considered for publication, email it to us at [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])**_

Image source, AFP Image caption, Authorities in Iraq's Kurdistan Region said four people were killed in the overnight strikes **The US has condemned Iran over ballistic missile attacks near Iraq's northern city of Irbil, calling them "a reckless and imprecise set of strikes".** Iran's Revolutionary Guards said they struck what they claimed were Israeli "spy headquarters" in Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdistan Region. Four people were killed and six wounded in Monday's attack, according to the Kurdistan Region Security Council. Iraq denounced the attacks, calling them a violation of its sovereignty. Israel's government has not commented on the Iranian claims. In a separate development, Kurdistan authorities said on Tuesday morning they had shot down three armed drones flying over Irbil airport, where US and international forces are stationed, Reuters reported. Authorities did not provide information on damage or casualties. The Iranian strikes come amid rising tensions in the region since the war between Israel the Iran-backed Palestinian group Hamas broke out in the Gaza Strip on 7 October. The conflict has increasingly started to spill over to involve militias allied to Iran operating in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen. "We will continue to assess the situation, but initial indications are that this was a reckless and imprecise set of strikes," Adrienne Watson, spokesperson for the White House National Security Council, said in a statement. "The United States supports the sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity of Iraq," she said, adding that no US personnel or facilities were targeted. Iran's Revolutionary Guards said that "one of the main Mossad espionage headquarters in Iraq's Kurdistan Region was destroyed with ballistic missiles". A statement said it was "in response to the recent atrocities of the Zionist regime". Image caption, Iraq's government condemned Iran's "aggression" on Irbil Iran has carried out missile attacks in Iraqi Kurdistan before, targeting what it said were sites used by Iranian separatist groups and agents of Israel. The Prime Minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government, Masrour Barzani, condemned the latest attack on Irbil as a "crime against the Kurdish people". A prominent businessman, Peshraw Dizayee, was among four civilians killed, Mr Barzani's Kurdistan Democratic Party said. The Revolutionary Guards also said they had targeted Islamic State (IS) group positions in Syria on Monday night. Explosions were heard in the north-western city of Aleppo and its countryside, where "at least four missiles that came from the direction of the Mediterranean Sea" fell, the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor said. The Revolutionary Guards said the strikes in Syria were in retaliation for this month's [suicide bombing that targeted crowds marking the anniversary](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67888283) of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani's assassination by the US. That attack in Kerman, in southern Iran, killed at least 94 people and wounded many more.

Israel and Gaza. Yemen and the Red Sea. Lebanon, Syria, Iraq — and now Pakistan, too. At every flashpoint in a set of conflicts spanning 1,800 miles and involving a hodgepodge of unpredictable armed actors and interests, there’s been a common thread: Iran. Tehran has left its imprint with its behind-the-scenes-backing of combatants in places like Lebanon and Yemen, and with this week’s direct missile strikes [on targets in Iraq, Syria and Pakistan](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/17/world/asia/pakistan-iran-strike.html?searchResultPosition=5). The Iran connection stems partly from Iran’s decades-long efforts to deter threats and undermine foes by building up like-minded militias across the Middle East. In addition, Iran itself, like neighboring countries, faces armed separatist movements and terrorist groups in conflicts that readily spill over borders. But what does Pakistan have to do with Gaza? Here’s a look at how Iran ties together recent tensions. Demonstrators shouting anti-American slogans outside the U.S. embassy in Tehran in 1979.Credit...Mohammad Sayad/Associated Press Ever since the 1979 revolution that made Iran a Shiite Muslim theocracy, it has been isolated and has seen itself as besieged. Iran considers the United States and Israel to be its biggest enemies — for more than four decades its leaders have [vowed to destroy Israel](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/01/world/middleeast/iran-israel-hamas.html?searchResultPosition=18). It also wants to establish itself as the most powerful nation in the Persian Gulf region, where its chief rival is Saudi Arabia, an American ally, and has often had hostile relations with the Saudis and some other predominantly Sunni Muslim Arab neighbors. With few other allies, Iran has long armed, trained, financed, advised and even directed several movements that share Iran’s enemies. Though Iranian forces have been involved directly in wars in Syria and Iraq, Tehran has mostly fought its enemies abroad [by proxy](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/14/world/middleeast/us-iran-mideast-war.html?searchResultPosition=5). Iran, which calls itself and these militias the “Axis of Resistance” to American and Israeli power, sees it all as “part of a single struggle,” said Hasan Alhasan, a senior fellow for Middle East Policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a policy analysis group. Iranian leaders call their approach a forward defense strategy, saying that to defend itself, the country must take action outside its borders. “If they are to avoid fighting the Americans and Israelis on Iran’s soil, they’ll have to do it elsewhere,” Mr. Alhasan said. “And that’s in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Palestine, Afghanistan.” How well the strategy works [is open to question](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/05/world/middleeast/iran-terrorism-isis-israel.html?searchResultPosition=8). Terrorist groups have attacked recently on Iranian soil. And for years Israel has carried out targeted attacks on Iran’s nuclear program, [killing some of its key figures and destroying facilities.](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/13/world/middleeast/israel-poison-iranian-scientists.html) By Lazaro Gamio While Iran wants to project its power and influence, it is reluctant to directly engage the United States or its allies, courting major retaliation or all-out war. How secure Iran’s leaders feel in their grip on power is unclear. But they know that decades of sanctions and embargoes have degraded Iran’s military forces and its economy, and that their repressive government faces [intense domestic opposition](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/15/world/middleeast/iran-protests-tehran-metro-shooting.html). Iran has hoped to compensate for its vulnerabilities by developing nuclear weapons, which would put it on par with Pakistan and Israel — and ahead of Saudi Arabia. But so far its nuclear program has not produced a bomb. Investing in proxy forces — fellow Shiites in Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen, and the Sunni Hamas in the Gaza Strip — allows Iran to cause trouble for its enemies, and to raise the prospect of causing more if attacked. “Proxy forces have allowed Iran to maintain some level of plausible deniability, while asymmetrically supplying Tehran with a means to effectively strike Israel or apply pressure to it,” the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point [wrote in a December report.](https://ctc.westpoint.edu/the-path-to-october-7-how-iran-built-up-and-managed-a-palestinian-axis-of-resistance/) Iranian officials have publicly denied being involved in or ordering Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack on Israel that killed about 1,200 people. But they also [praised the assault as a momentous achievement](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/13/world/middleeast/hamas-iran-israel-attack.html), and warned that their regional network would open [multiple fronts](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/16/world/middleeast/iran-gaza-israel-hamas.html?searchResultPosition=8) against Israel if the country kept up its retaliatory war against Hamas in Gaza. Some of those proxies have, in fact, stepped up attacks on Israel, but have avoided full-fledged warfare. Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, speaking in Lebanon.Credit...Diego Ibarra Sanchez for The New York Times [Hezbollah](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/27/world/middleeast/hezbollah-iran-syria-israel-lebanon.html) in Lebanon, widely considered to be the most powerful and sophisticated of the Iran-allied forces, was founded in the 1980s with Iranian assistance, specifically to fight the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon. The group, which is also a political party in Lebanon, has fought multiple wars and border skirmishes with Israel. Hezbollah has been trading fire across the border with Israel’s military almost daily since the Oct. 7 Hamas-led attacks, but it has thus far refrained from [fully joining the fight](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/31/world/middleeast/hezbollah-lebanon-israel-gaza.html). The [Houthi movement in Yemen](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/11/world/middleeast/houthi-yemen-red-sea-attacks.html) launched an insurgency against the government two decades ago. What was once a ragtag rebel force gained power thanks at least in part to covert military aid from Iran, [according to American and Middle Eastern officials and analysts.](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/17/world/middleeast/yemen-houthis-gulf.html) The Houthis seized much of the country in 2014 and 2015, and a Saudi-led coalition stepped into the civil war on the side of the Yemeni government. A de facto cease-fire has held since 2022, with the Houthis still in control of Yemen’s northwest and its capital, Sana. Since the war in Gaza began, the Houthis have waged what they call a campaign in solidarity with Palestinians under Israeli bombardment. They have launched missiles and drones at Israel, and have disrupted a significant part of the world’s shipping by attacking [dozens of](https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/STATEMENTS/Statements-View/Article/3643121/us-centcom-statement-on-27th-houthi-attack-on-commercial-shipping-lanes-in-the/) vessels heading to or from the Suez Canal. That has transformed the Houthis into a force with a global impact, and prompted the United States and Britain, with help from allies, to [carry out missile strikes on Houthi targets inside Yemen](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/11/us/politics/us-houthi-missile-strikes.html). Hamas, in the Palestinian territories, has also received weapons and training from Iran, and has fought repeated wars with Israel. The funeral of a victim of the terrorist bombing in Kerman, Iran, this month in Tehran.Credit...Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times It has a lot to do with the government’s problems at home. As tensions rise across the region, Tehran has increasingly become a target. Last month, a separatist group attacked a police station in southeastern Iran, killing 11 people. Two [senior Iranian commanders were assassinated in Syria](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/26/world/middleeast/iran-military-official-israel-syria.html), and Iran blamed Israel. Then this month, suicide bombings in Kerman, Iran, [killed almost 100 people](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/04/world/middleeast/us-isis-iran-general-suleimani.html) — the deadliest terrorist attacks since the Islamic Republic was founded. The Islamic State claimed responsibility. Iran analysts, and Iranians close to the military, say the government wanted to make a show of force with an eye to the hard-liners who make up its base of support, and were already incensed at Israeli attacks. Iran went on the offensive. It said this week that it had fired missiles at the Islamic State in Syria, and at what it said was an Israeli base for intelligence gathering in northern Iraq. (The Iraqi government denied that the building struck was tied to Israel.) It also fired into Pakistan. “Iran has signaled clearly that it is not willing to deploy those capabilities for anything less than the defense of their homeland,” said Ali Vaez, the Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, a policy group. The separatist group Jaish al-Adl wants to create a homeland for the Baluch ethnic group out of parts of Iran and Pakistan, and it operates on both sides of the border. It also took responsibility for the deadly attack last month on an Iranian police station. The two countries have accused each other of not doing enough to prevent militants from crossing the border. Iran said its strikes in Pakistan targeted bases for Jaish al-Adl, but Pakistan pushed back against Iran’s reasoning, citing what it said were civilian casualties. On Thursday, Pakistan responded by bombing what it said were terrorist hide-outs inside Iran. Pakistan and Iran have had mostly cordial relations, and the frictions between them have little to do with Iran’s other regional conflicts. But Iran’s decision to strike inside Pakistan has the potential to damage its relationship with Pakistan. At a time when the region is already on edge, a miscalculation could be especially dangerous. Vivian Nereim, Salman Masood and Farnaz Fassihi contributed reporting.

Iraqi airline Fly Baghdad is denying U.S. allegations that have resulted in it being hit with sanctions from the Treasury Department WASHINGTON -- The U.S. on Monday hit [Iraq](https://abcnews.go.com/alerts/Iraq)i airline Fly Baghdad and its CEO with sanctions, alleging assistance to Iran's military wing, and imposed a fifth round of sanctions on the militant group Hamas for abuse of cryptocurrency since the Oct. 7 attack on Israel. The sanctions come as Israel's bombing campaign on the Gaza Strip continues — killing 25,000 Palestinians so far, according to the Gaza Strip Healthy Ministry — and Iranian-backed militias in Iraq launch regular strikes against bases housing U.S. forces in Iraq and [Syria](https://abcnews.go.com/alerts/TurkeySyriaEarthquake). In the new sanctions, the Treasury Department said Fly Baghdad and CEO Basheer Abdulkadhim Alwan al-Shabbani have provided assistance to Iran's military wing and its proxy groups in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. “Iran and its proxies have sought to abuse regional economies and use seemingly legitimate businesses as cover for funding and facilitating their attacks,” Treasury Undersecretary Brian E. Nelson said in a statement. “The United States will continue to disrupt Iran’s illicit activities aimed at undermining the stability of the region.” The sanctions block access to U.S. property and bank accounts and prevent the targeted people and companies from doing business with Americans. Fly Baghdad denied the U.S. allegations and said it would take legal action to demand compensation for losses resulting from the sanctions “as it is clear that the decision was based on misleading and false information and cannot stand before the law.” The Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control also designated three leaders and supporters of an Iran-aligned militia in Iraq, Kataib Hezbollah, as well as a business that it says moves and launders funds for the organization. Since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war, an umbrella group of Iranian-backed militias in Iraq calling itself the Islamic Resistance in Iraq has launched strikes against bases housing U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria. The group has said that the strikes are in retaliation for Washington’s backing of Israel in the war in Gaza and that it aims to push U.S. troops out of Iraq. Most of the strikes have fallen short or been shot down and have not caused casualties, but on Saturday a missile salvo launched at al-Asad airbase in western Iraq injured a number of U.S. personnel and one Iraqi military service member stationed there. Some of the Iranian-backed Iraqi militias, including Kataib Hezbollah, officially operate under the control of the Iraqi military as part of a coalition known as the Popular Mobilization Forces, which was a key player in the fight against the Islamic State extremist group when it rampaged across Iraq and Syria, seizing wide swaths of territory. In practice, however, the groups largely operate outside of state control. In addition on Monday, the U.S. sanctioned a network of Hamas-affiliated financial exchanges in Gaza, including financial facilitators that transferred funds through cryptocurrency from Iran to Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza. The U.K. and Australia coordinated with the U.S. on these sanctions. Hamas has said it planned for a potentially long fight and was "ready to do whatever is necessary for the dignity and freedom of our people.” \_\_\_ Associated Press writer Abby Sewell reported from Beirut, Lebanon.

Denmark’s defence ministry said it would launch a review after evidence emerged showing its air force participated in airstrikes on Libya that killed 14 civilians in 2011, the first time any of the 10 countries involved in the Nato bombing campaign has acknowledged a possible link to non-combatant casualties. Documents released under freedom of information show the Danish air force had concluded privately as long ago as 2012 that two F-16 attacks were connected to civilian casualty reports compiled by the UN, media and human rights groups. However, this acknowledgment was not made public at the time, effectively preventing a relative of the Libyans killed from seeking compensation or redress, because he did not know which country may have been behind the bombing. Nato attacks involving Danish fighter jets in which non-combatants were killed include: * An [airstrike on Surman](https://airwars.org/civilian-casualties/lib2011-114-june-20-2011/), nearly 40 miles west of Tripoli, on 20 June 2011 that killed 12 civilians, including five children and six members of one family. A surviving family member said the target was solely a residential compound, owned by a retired Libyan government member, but Nato said at the time it was “a legitimate military target”, despite [reports of non-combatant deaths](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gGrm_g5lRs). * The [bombing of an apartment block in Sirte](https://airwars.org/civilian-casualties/lib2011-164-september-16-2011/), central Libya, on 16 September 2011 that killed two, a man and a woman who was five months pregnant. Although there were unconfirmed reports of snipers on the rooftop, questions were raised in the aftermath over whether an attack would have been proportionate, given civilians were killed. The Danish defence ministry said in a statement that while the events took place many years ago, it had begun a review. “The Minister of Defence has requested the Defence Command to assess whether the documents in question indicate that there were ramifications of such magnitude that an investigation should have been conducted at that time within the coalition or Nato framework,” it added. One newly released document, written in English and sent in May 2012 from Danish military command to the country’s Nato representatives, said “Danish aircraft participated in a number of the specific attacks” listed as having caused civilian casualties by investigators from the UN international commission of inquiry on Libya, Human Rights Watch and the New York Times. “Civilian casualties during the conduct of these attacks cannot be ruled out,” the Danish internal review, previously marked secret, concluded. However, the review also argued there was “no evidence or indication that Danish aircraft have caused such casualties”, because “there were no Nato troops on the ground to estimate the effects of attacks”. Instead, Denmark relied on remote pilot observations and other reconnaissance to reach an ambiguous verdict.  Extract of the document sent in May 2012 from Danish military command to the country’s Nato representatives. Further air force documents, in Danish, confirm the country’s F-16s participated in the airstrikes on Surman and Sirte on the basis of the dates of each. In each case, a second country was involved, but its name remains redacted, meaning it remains possible another country’s military delivered the deadly bombs. The Danish admission of a link with the airstrikes follows a joint investigation between [Altinget](https://www.altinget.dk/artikel/forsvaret-hemmeligholdt-rapporter-i-aarevis-danmark-draebte-med-al-sandsynlighed-civile-i-libyen), a Danish news site, the civilian harm watchdog [Airwars](https://airwars.org/investigations/denmark-civilians-libya-2011/), and the Guardian. One expert said the Danish military’s failure to acknowledge the possibility of causing civilian casualties at the time was a missed opportunity to improve standards of accountability – and to allow victims to seek compensation. Marc Garlasco, an adviser to the UN-established international commission of inquiry on Libya, which investigated human rights violations by all parties in the conflict, said he found the disclosures in the documents “quite galling” because Nato had refused to answer questions about civilian casualties at the time. “It is greatly disappointing that there wasn’t enough transparency that they put this out at a time back when it could be useful. Useful not only for lessons learned so that lives could be saved in the future but also useful for the victims of these strikes – that they could have an understanding of why their family members were killed and could potentially receive some kind of compensation for their loss,” he said. Aerial bombardment is at the heart of modern warfare, used repeatedly by the west against Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, by Russia in Syria and Ukraine and most intensively by Israel in Gaza. However, militaries, including those in the west, have often been reluctant to admit when civilians were killed and wounded. The UK says only [one civilian was killed](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/16/uk-air-war-isis-ends-five-years) during a nine-year campaign of bombing IS targets in Iraq and Syria in which 4,324 missiles or other weapons were launched, a near perfect record that [experts have questioned](https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/apr/04/only-civilian-victim-uk-bombing-campaign-is-syria-iraq-military).  Pictures of people killed at the residential compound in Surman, including five children. Photograph: Fred Abrahams/Human Rights Watch Responding to the Danish disclosure, a Nato official said the Libyan campaign was conducted with “unprecedented precision” and that “exceptional care was taken to minimise risks to civilians”. Although the official conceded the risks “can never be zero”, they insisted that all locations bombed during the operation were “legitimate military targets”. Nato had no first-hand evidence of civilian casualties, because alliance soldiers were not allowed to inspect casualty sites. “There was no invitation from the Libyan authorities for Nato to send personnel into the country to review strikes,” the Nato official said. Ten nations, including six from [Europe](https://www.theguardian.com/world/europe-news), participated in the bombing missions as part of Nato-led Operation Unified Protector, the codename for the western intervention in Libya, which ran for six months from 31 March 2011. It helped lead to the overthrow of the dictator Col Muammar Gaddafi but also ushered in a long period of instability in the north African country, which remains divided between east and west after a period of civil war. As well as Denmark, countries involved in bombing targets in Libya included the US, UK, France, Belgium, Canada, Italy, Norway, which are all Nato members, plus Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. A Dane, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, headed Nato at the time.  Khaled al-Hamedi, whose wife and two children were killed in the strike at Surman, tried to bring a claim against Nato. Photograph: Hamada Elrasam/Altinget/Airwars Other Nato airstrikes, not involving Denmark, have been linked to civilian fatalities, including a bombing in Majer on 8 August 2011, where a UN investigation concluded that an initial bombing killed 16 civilians – and then after rescuers had arrived, a follow-up attack killed a further 18. Until now no country has accepted a link between their air force and a particular bombing, shielding their activities under the umbrella of Nato. As a result it has not been possible for family members of victims to seek redress in that country’s courts. One man, Khaled al-Hamedi, whose wife and two children were killed in the strike at Surman, tried to bring a claim against Nato, but it failed when the Belgian court of appeal concluded in 2017 the military alliance had immunity from prosecution. The strike targeted a large family compound belonging to Hamedi’s father, a senior figure in Gadaffi’s regime with links to the Libyan leader’s family. The younger Hamedi described the site as residential, while Nato said it was a command and control node. Having been shown the documents, he said he would discuss with his lawyer about bringing a claim against the Danish military. “I want them first to declare their mistake to us,” he said, and that as well as seeking compensation he wanted Denmark, or whoever was responsible, “to say sorry as well”.  Khaled al-Hamedi being shown the previously secret military reports. Photograph: Hamada Elrasam/Altinget/Airwars Denmark, in common with other western nations, had a policy in which a military officer, known as a “red card holder”, could refuse to let that country’s air force fly on a mission if, as stated in one of the Danish documents, it was “suspected that it would cause civilian casualties”. Pilots were supposed to abort missions if they suspected attacks would cause civilian casualties. Tessa Gregory, a partner at the British public law firm Leigh Day, said if militaries were not prepared to examine reports of civilian casualties and acknowledge mistakes, they risked giving the impression they were above the law. She said: “In military operations where it is alleged that civilian casualties have occurred it is imperative that those allegations are properly investigated and that victims are given enough information to seek redress under international and domestic legal mechanisms. Without transparency it is likely a culture of impunity will flourish.” * _This investigation is part of collaboration between the Guardian, Altinget and Airwars. It was supported by Journalismfund.eu._

Iran has emerged as the chief architect in multiple conflicts strafing the Middle East, from the Mediterranean to the Persian Gulf. It trained and helped arm the Iraqi militias that killed three U.S. service members with a drone in Jordan this weekend. It supplied Hamas and Hezbollah in their clashes with Israel. It launched missiles at anti-Iranian militants inside Pakistan in response to the bombing of a local police station in December. And it has helped Houthi warriors in Yemen attack container ships in the Red Sea to protest the war in Gaza. All of which, taken together, threaten a wider war. Why is Iran suddenly involved in so many conflicts? Today’s newsletter will try to answer that question. Since the 1979 takeover of Iran by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the country’s Islamic revolutionary government has had one overriding ambition: to be the lead player shaping the future of the Middle East. Seen another way, it wants Israel weaker and the United States gone from the region after decades of primacy. Like Israel, Iran sees existential threats everywhere and seeks to counter them. Iran, which has a Shiite majority, has wary, if not hostile, Sunni Arab neighbors. Its archenemy, Israel, has the reach to damage Iran. And since 2003, Iran has been surrounded by U.S. troops in Afghanistan, Iraq, the Persian Gulf and more recently in Syria. The troops in Afghanistan are gone now, but the rest remain, including the ones attacked by drone on Sunday. To achieve regional hegemony and safeguard its theocracy, Iran has responded on three fronts: military, diplomatic and economic. Those efforts have become more assertive in the past year, especially since the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas. Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and [log into](https://myaccount.nytimes.com/auth/login?response_type=cookie&client_id=vi&redirect_uri=&asset=opttrunc) your Times account, or [subscribe](https://www.nytimes.com/subscription?campaignId=89WYR&redirect_uri=) for all of The Times. Thank you for your patience while we verify access. Already a subscriber? Log in. Want all of The Times? Subscribe.

There’s a whip-smart 10-year-old girl in Gaza who speaks good English, displays a radiant smile and seemed to have a bright future. The daughter of an X-ray technician, she had been accepted to an international exchange program and was supposed to be leaving soon. Instead, she’s lying in a hospital bed with a badly infected wound in her thigh from a bomb blast. A photo shows a football-size open wound, with a chunk of her femur missing. “She was supposed to be in Japan,” said Dr. Samer Attar, an orthopedic surgeon who cared for the girl and told me about her. “Now she’s lying in bed deciding whether to have her leg removed.” I’ve known Dr. Attar for a decade, ever since he volunteered to work in secret hospitals in Aleppo, Syria, to save victims of Russian bombings. A professor at Northwestern University School of Medicine, [he has worked in war zones](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/20/opinion/international-world/syria-ukraine-doctor-volunteer.html) and crisis areas around the world, including Ukraine and Iraq — and recently, at hospitals in Gaza, through the medical volunteer organizations [Rahma Worldwide](https://rahmaww.org/) and [IDEALS](https://www.ideals.org.uk/aboutus.html). Dr. Attar said the girl needed an amputation at the hip to save her life. Her dad, struggling to come to terms with how his and his daughter’s lives have collapsed, is resisting for now. Over the years, I’ve covered many bloody wars and written scathingly about how governments in [Russia](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/16/opinion/ukraine-russia-war.html), [Sudan](https://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/21/opinion/sunday/nicholas-kristof-a-rain-of-bombs-in-the-nuba-mountains.html) and [Syria](https://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/18/opinion/sunday/kristof-Grandma-Faces-Down-War-in-Syria.html) recklessly bombed civilians. This time, it’s different: My government is on the side engaged in what President Biden has referred to as “[indiscriminate bombing](https://apnews.com/article/biden-israel-hamas-oct-7-44c4229d4c1270d9cfa484b664a22071).” This is not the same as deliberately targeting civilians, as those other countries did — but this time, as a taxpayer, I’m helping to pay for the bombs. Gaza is also different from Syria and Ukraine, of course, in that Israel did not start this war. Instead, Israel was brutally attacked by Hamas in a rampage of murder, torture and rape. Any government would have struck back, and Hamas maximized the suffering of civilians by using them as human shields. Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and [log into](https://myaccount.nytimes.com/auth/login?response_type=cookie&client_id=vi&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F02%2F03%2Fopinion%2Fgaza-israel-war-children.html&asset=opttrunc) your Times account, or [subscribe](https://www.nytimes.com/subscription?campaignId=89WYR&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F02%2F03%2Fopinion%2Fgaza-israel-war-children.html) for all of The Times. Thank you for your patience while we verify access. Already a subscriber? [Log in](https://myaccount.nytimes.com/auth/login?response_type=cookie&client_id=vi&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F02%2F03%2Fopinion%2Fgaza-israel-war-children.html&asset=opttrunc). Want all of The Times? [Subscribe](https://www.nytimes.com/subscription?campaignId=89WYR&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F02%2F03%2Fopinion%2Fgaza-israel-war-children.html).

 Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani chairs a meeting with top-ranking officials of the Iraqi armed forces and of the U.S.-led coalition about the future of American and other foreign troops in the country, in Baghdad on Jan. 27. Hadi Mizban/POOL/AFP via Getty Images BAGHDAD – Iraqi government officials on Saturday condemned [U.S. airstrikes on Iran-linked targets in Iraq](https://www.npr.org/2024/02/02/1228132782/us-biden-iran-drone-response-strike), saying the attacks showed that U.S. forces had become a threat to their host country — a sentiment that will likely hasten demands for the U.S.-led military coalition in Iraq to leave. Militia officials named 16 fighters they said were killed in the strikes late Friday, including five medics they said died when an airstrike hit a base hospital in western al-Anbar province. The Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) — made up of armed groups that are now part of Iraqi government security forces — said seven of the 16 fatalities were killed when the U.S. bombed its al-Anbar province operations headquarters. It said at least 36 more people were injured and searches were ongoing for missing fighters. The mayor of al-Qaim, a city close to the border with Syria where some of the targets were located, told NPR by phone that at least one civilian was also killed in the strikes and at least five homes near the operations headquarters were destroyed. "We had information that the area would be bombed a day or two before," said the mayor, Turki Muhammad Khalaf. He said many of the residents near the base had evacuated their homes as a precaution. The U.S. said it launched the attacks as retaliation for [the killing of three U.S. soldiers](https://www.npr.org/2024/01/28/1227464410/3-us-troops-killed-25-wounded-drone-strike-jordan-syria-mideast) in a drone attack last Sunday on a remote base in Jordan, also close to borders with Syria and Iraq. The U.S. blamed the strike on the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella group of militias, and said it believed the attack bore the fingerprints of Kataib Hezbollah, the most powerful militia in the group. Kataib Hezbollah said after the attack in Jordan that it was suspending strikes on U.S. targets to avoid "embarrassing" the Iraqi government, which has come under intense U.S. pressure to try to halt the attacks. By Saturday evening, the militia had not commented on the Friday night attacks. Another militia group, Harakat al-Nujaba, [told the Associated Press](https://apnews.com/article/iraq-iran-syria-jordan-strikes-us-2f235ac0d00edc266576ef0d76fa33e4) that the U.S. must understand that "every action elicits a reaction" but that the group did not want to escalate regional tensions. A spokesman for the group told the AP the targeted bases were mostly empty at the time of the U.S. attacks. The Iraqi government spokesman condemned the strikes targeting the Popular Mobilization Forces as "blatant aggression" and a violation of Iraqi sovereignty. The PMF was formed from dozens of militias which answered a call by Iraq's most senior Shiite cleric to fight the Sunni militant group ISIS in 2014 after Iraqi army divisions collapsed in the face of the ISIS onslaught. The Iraqi government declared three days of mourning for the dead. "This aggressive airstrike will push the security situation in Iraq and the region to the brink of the abyss," said Basim Alawadi, the government spokesman. "We assert that the presence of the international coalition, which deviated from its assigned tasks and granted mandate, has become a reason for endangering security and stability in Iraq. It also serves as a justification for entangling Iraq in regional and international conflicts." Alawadi said U.S. claims that it had informed the Iraqi government of the strikes beforehand were not true, calling it "intentional deception." Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani and senior Iraqi military leaders have told Western diplomats they believe the U.S.-led coalition and the intelligence, surveillance and technological assets it provides are still needed in Iraq, but it appears to have become politically untenable for those forces to stay in Iraq. Sudani last week convened a meeting of Iraqi and U.S. military officials for what he described as the start of a timetable for a departure of U.S.-led forces. The U.S. maintains about 2,500 service members in Iraq and another 900 in neighboring Syria. Although their mission is helping Iraq and Syrian Kurds fight ISIS, the U.S. government's focus on isolating Iran has sparked concern in Iraq and Iran that that is now the major preoccupation of the U.S. military presence here. The militias are in part a legacy of the security vacuum after the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, when U.S. occupation authorities disbanded Iraq's armed forces. Al-Qaida sprung up in that vacuum, launching waves of bombing attacks on both U.S targets and undefended Shia shrines and neighborhoods, prompting the rise of Shiite militias to counter both them and the U.S. forces. Iraq quickly spiraled into a civil war. Dozens of militias formed when ISIS – a successor to al-Qaida in Iraq – burst onto the scene in 2014. Many of those militias were incorporated into Iraq's official security forces and put on the Iraqi government payroll with the defeat of ISIS in Syria five years later. Although they are nominally under the command of the Iraqi prime minister, many of the major groups have stronger links to Iran. Some of the Iran-linked militias based in Iraq are part of The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a loose group that escalated attacks against U.S. military targets from Iraq and Syria after the start of the Gaza war. Militia leaders have said they will stop attacks against the U.S. when the war in Gaza, in which the U.S. supplies weapons to Israel, stops. _Awadh al-Taie contributed reporting from Baghdad._

Fear of another earthquake grips millions in Syria’s last rebel-held province, even the lucky few who managed to find new homes after theirs were destroyed. Many began pitching tents as the anniversary approached, wary of having to flee their houses once again. When the earthquakes struck in the early hours of 6 February last year, people in Idlib said they thought the ground violently shaking meant airstrikes ordered by the government in Damascus. Now the rumble of airstrikes makes them fearful that another quake is happening. Tremors, whether from an aftershock or airstrike, are enough to send six-year-old Jinan running fearfully into the tent where she now lives alongside her younger brother, Abdullah, their grandparents and 18 other orphans. The earthquakes changed Jinan and Abdullah’s lives and their [frightened faces](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/14/get-me-out-of-here-survival-of-syrian-siblings-filmed-trapped-in-rubble), trapped between layers of rubble, came to symbolise Idlib’s suffering when footage of their plight was widely circulated. “We can deal with bombings, but not another earthquake,” said their uncle, Omar Rahal, who shot the video, offering a little gallows humour. “This is our reality.” Reconstruction has been slow in an enclave where Rahal and others complain about being forgotten by the world. As those in Idlib attempted to recover from deadly earthquakes that killed an estimated 8,000 people across Syria, more than half in the north-west, the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Damascus scaled up a deadly bombing campaign in the enclave. One particularly vicious campaign of strikes early last September killed 45 people in Idlib and devastated multiple pieces of civilian infrastructure, adding to the destruction wrought by the quakes, which damaged thousands of schools, medical centres and homes. The UN said late last year that the violence in northwestern Syria had returned to levels not seen for four years. Around 3.4 million people are now internally displaced after fleeing fighting, some of them for a second or even third time due to the earthquakes; 43,000 people forced to move by the earthquakes are yet to return home. “Many families came here as they thought it was safer, but after they lost their home here, they decided to go back to their villages, as they simply had nowhere else to go,” said Dalal Albesh, who runs the Zumoruda women’s centre in the town of Salqeen in Idlib. The town welcomed many fleeing the bombardments before it was badly hit by the earthquakes. “They went back to their old homes and risk their lives to live near the frontlines,” she said. “A few of them who used to have lands with olive trees decided to deal with the risk of being near the frontlines, so they could at least have an income. If you go to the camps, there’s very little to do there, and people have very few choices in this situation.” [](https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2024/feb/05/one-year-on-orphaned-siblings-are-haunted-by-syrian-earthquake#img-2) Omar Rahal with Jinan at the hospital Idlib, Syria. Photograph: Alessio Mamo/The Guardian Jinan and Abdullah are attempting to heal from their injuries, sustained when their family home crushed them, while living in a tent. Rahal is haunted by the experience of rushing to his cousin Mahmoud’s house in the Idlib town of Al Haram after the earthquakes struck, only to hear Jinan’s voice calling to him from under the rubble, begging him to rescue her and her brother. He could hear their mother, Sara, imploring him to save her children before she was crushed to death by the layer of concrete that had been their ceiling. Rahal tunnelled through the rubble to speak to Jinan and Abdullah, promising that he would either get them out or die trying. He recorded a video of the trapped children for his colleagues in the local police force, to help them figure out how to bring the right equipment, but it soon reached millions of viewers online. He eventually managed to pull both children from under the rubble of their home, their mother’s limp arm outstretched towards the pair. Jinan’s leg was impaled on a piece of metal, leaving her with deep nerve damage that has required seven surgeries and a course of physiotherapy. Rahal had to fight to find doctors willing to forgo amputating her leg. Her recovery, he said, has been made slower and harder in the tent; they face brutal heat during the summer and cold rains in winter. Jinan started school last September, limping to attend class with the other children. Abdullah suffered burns from battery acid, leaving deep wounds that still require surgery on his feet. Not yet two, he is still trying to understand what he lost. “He’s young, but you can see that when he looks at the burns and scars on his leg, these symbolise that overnight he lost most of his family,” said Rahal. “He had a mother, father and five other sisters just a day before. In one night they lost it all.” [](https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2024/feb/05/one-year-on-orphaned-siblings-are-haunted-by-syrian-earthquake#img-3) The Maram camp for internally displaced people in Syria’s north-western Idlib province in March last year. Photograph: Omar Haj Kadour/AFP/Getty Reconstruction efforts in Idlib are also deeply intertwined with diplomatic struggles over the lone crossing into the territory, with the UN now dependent on Damascus’ authorisation to bring in vital aid. The UN has also [warned](https://www.unocha.org/news/syria-humanitarian-situation-unsustainable-and-insupportable-top-un-aid-official-tells) that a drop in donations has jeopardised their ability to provide services in Idlib; its funding for northwest Syria is running at a third of its target amount. Then there are the rising prices for even the most basic goods. Rahal pointed to the food baskets containing items such as sugar and bread that used to come as part of the aid packages, where “we would receive enough for the whole house, but it’s halved”. Others working in aid in the north-west said that local authorities, linked to the deeply conservative militant group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, an offshoot of the jihadist Nusra Front, keep a close watch on humanitarian organisations operating in Idlib, implicitly warning them against working on any issues that might challenge their authority. Rahal mulled the feeling among his extended family as the anniversary of the earthquake approached, recalling how Jinan began to cry on seeing videos of her deceased sister and mother that her grandmother played on her phone recently. “We are all too aware of what we lived through and what happened, and the huge impact it had on our lives,” he said. “Hopefully the kids will forget with time.”

In the past few months, deep in the forbidding deserts of central Syria, Russian forces have quietly joined the Syrian military in intensifying attacks against Islamic State strongholds, including bombing what local news reports called the dens and caves where the extremist fighters hide. While the world was focused on the conflicts in [Ukraine](https://www.nytimes.com/news-event/ukraine-russia) and [Gaza](https://www.nytimes.com/news-event/israel-hamas-gaza), this type of skirmishing has been simmering for years in Syria, and the Islamic State has long threatened to strike Russia directly for shoring up the regime of its sworn enemy, President Bashar al-Assad of Syria. That moment appeared to have come on Friday night with the bloody [assault on a Moscow concert hall](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/23/world/europe/moscow-concert-hall-attack-what-we-know.html) that left more than 130 people dead. [“The fiercest in years,”](https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/moscow-russia-shooting-03-23-24/index.html) said a statement of responsibility issued on Saturday by [a branch of the Islamic State](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/22/us/politics/isis-k-moscow-attack.html) via its news agency, referring to the long history of brutal terrorist attacks pitting jihadist forces against Moscow. “They have framed this attack as coming in the context of the normal, ongoing war between ISIS and the anti-Islamic countries,” said Hanna Notte, a Berlin-based expert on Russian foreign and security policy at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. “This seems to be within the overarching theme of Russia in Afghanistan, Russia in Chechnya, Russia in Syria.” President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, right, meeting with the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, in Moscow last year.Credit...Vladimir Gerdo/Sputnik, via EPA-EFE, via Shutterstock In his brief [remarks](http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73703) on Saturday, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia did not mention the claim from the Islamic State, but he did threaten to punish those responsible. “All perpetrators, organizers and commissioners of this crime will receive a just and inevitable punishment,” Mr. Putin said. Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and [log into](https://myaccount.nytimes.com/auth/login?response_type=cookie&client_id=vi&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F03%2F24%2Fworld%2Feurope%2Frussia-extremism-isis-syria.html&asset=opttrunc) your Times account, or [subscribe](https://www.nytimes.com/subscription?campaignId=89WYR&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F03%2F24%2Fworld%2Feurope%2Frussia-extremism-isis-syria.html) for all of The Times. Thank you for your patience while we verify access. Already a subscriber? [Log in](https://myaccount.nytimes.com/auth/login?response_type=cookie&client_id=vi&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F03%2F24%2Fworld%2Feurope%2Frussia-extremism-isis-syria.html&asset=opttrunc). Want all of The Times? [Subscribe](https://www.nytimes.com/subscription?campaignId=89WYR&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F03%2F24%2Fworld%2Feurope%2Frussia-extremism-isis-syria.html).

/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73251426/GettyImages_2123635307.0.jpg) Iranian protesters burn US flags during a protest gathering to condemn the Israeli airstrike against the Iranian consulate in Syria, at Palestine Square in Tehran, Iran, on April 1, 2024 Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images Even as the fighting has raged in [Gaza](https://www.vox.com/2018/11/20/18080046/gaza-palestine-israel), a question has hung over the war: Would it escalate into a wider regional conflict involving [Iran](https://www.vox.com/iran), its various proxy groups, and perhaps even the US military? Nearly six months after October 7, it’s a mixed picture. The Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have played a much larger role in the conflict than [most observers expected](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/24010092/houthis-red-sea-shipping-yemen-israel-gaza), up to the point of meaningfully disrupting international shipping. But early fears that a full-scale war with Lebanon-based Hezbollah would break out on [Israel](https://www.vox.com/israel)’s “northern front” or that the Iranian government itself would get directly involved haven’t materialized. Nonetheless, Monday marked a major step up the escalator ladder. Warplanes, [presumably Israeli](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/israeli-airstrike-destroys-irans-consulate-in-damascus-occupants-killed-or-wounded-syria-says), carried out an airstrike in Damascus, Syria, which [killed a senior Iranian general](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-bombs-iran-embassy-syria-iranian-commanders-among-dead-2024-04-01/), Mohammad Reza Zahedi, who was deeply involved in his government’s activities in Syria and Lebanon. He is the highest-ranking Iranian military officer killed by enemy fire since Gen. Qassem Soleimani was killed by a US drone strike in 2020. Per its general practice with strikes in Syria, Israel has not officially acknowledged the attack, but four Israeli officials, speaking anonymously, [confirmed their involvement](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/01/world/middleeast/iran-commanders-killed-syria-israel.html) to the New York Times. [Iran claims](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/01/iranian-general-israel-airstrike-assassination) that the building that was struck was a consulate facility that was also used as its ambassador’s residence, but the anonymous Israeli officials denied that it had diplomatic status. Iran’s President, Ebrahim Raisi, [vowed](https://www.ft.com/content/eec24104-1917-4d33-a4e1-263334c93791) that the strike “would not go unpunished,” and Iran-backed Hezbollah has vowed retaliation. US officials claim to have had [no advanced knowledge or involvement](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/02/iran-embassy-syria-israel-strike-biden) in the strike — according to [some reports,](https://www.reuters.com/world/us-was-not-alerted-about-strike-irans-damascus-mission-us-officials-2024-04-02/#:~:text=%22We%20were%20not%20notified%20by,was%20not%20behind%20the%20strike.) they were told only generally that there would be upcoming activity in Syria — but Iranian officials [nonetheless say](https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news-04-02-24/h_aac727042409eb6038dc29e9bdcb3282) they are holding the US responsible. Iran’s response may not be immediate, but the strike will nonetheless contribute to regional tensions that were already at the boiling point — and there’s a good chance American troops in the Middle East may be in the firing line. ### Iran’s man in Damascus Zahedi was a significant figure in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its efforts to project power throughout the region. At one point, he commanded the IRGC’s air force, but he’s better known for his work as a liaison to both Hezbollah and Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, which is allied with Iran. He was the only non-Lebanese citizen to sit on Hezbollah’s Shura Council, the group’s main decision-making body. The [strike also killed six other senior leaders](https://carnegie-mec.org/diwan/92098) of the Quds Force — the branch of the IRGC responsible for operations outside Iran — including Zahedi’s chief of staff and the commander for [Palestine](https://www.vox.com/palestine). As such, Israel not only severed a key link between Tehran and its foreign proxies, but also removed several of the men who might have been in line to replace him. It’s a significant hit to the IRGC’s operations, but how much of a setback is it, really? [Suzanne Maloney](https://www.brookings.edu/people/suzanne-maloney/), an expert on Iran and director of the foreign policy program at the Brookings Institution, pointed out that many expected Iran’s network to take a blow after Soleimani was killed. Instead, “it’s arguable that today, Iran’s coordination of its various proxy militias in the Middle East is stronger than it was even in Soleimani’s heyday,” Maloney told Vox. “Killing influential figures in Iran’s military establishment doesn’t necessarily produce the corresponding desired impact of degrading Iran’s capabilities in the region. In some respects, it may only harden Iran’s commitment and that of the various proxies.” ### How will Tehran respond? Whatever the operational impact, Iran will have to respond somehow, but it may be the US rather than Israel that bears the brunt of it. [Charles Lister](https://www.mei.edu/profile/charles-lister), director of the Syria and counterterrorism programs at the Middle East Institute, told Vox that “the most predictable option will be to lift the freeze on proxy attacks on US troops in Syria and Iraq. Basically, our troops in Iraq and Syria are seen by Iran as soft targets, but also targets that can indirectly place significant pressure on the Israelis.” In the weeks following the [Hamas](https://www.vox.com/politics/2023/10/10/23911661/hamas-israel-war-gaza-palestine-explainer) attacks on October 7 and in response to Israel’s war in Gaza, Iran-backed militias carried out [dozens of rocket and drone strikes](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-backed-attacks-us-troops-middle-east-since-oct-7-2024-01-28/) against US troops in the region. These culminated in a strike on [January 29 that killed three US soldiers](https://www.vox.com/2024/1/29/24055046/jordan-drone-strike-troop-deaths-proliferation) at a base in Jordan. While the US response to the earlier strikes had been limited, after the deaths it responded much more aggressively [with a strike in Baghdad](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/sound-loud-blasts-heard-iraqs-baghdad-reuters-witness-2024-02-07/#:~:text=%22(U.S.)%20forces%20conducted%20a,statement%20from%20the%20military%20said.) that killed the leader of Kataib Hezbollah, the militia blamed for the Jordan attack. Since then, Iran’s [proxies have dramatically scaled](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/27/world/middleeast/us-iran-militias.html) back their efforts, reportedly at Tehran’s request. That may now be changing. Shortly after the Damascus strike, [US forces shot down](https://twitter.com/laraseligman/status/1775140193164460140) a drone in the vicinity of the US garrison in al-Tanf, Syria, though it’s not clear if the drone was actually targeting the base. If it was, it would have been the first attack on US troops in the country in two months. Even before Monday, there were signs that Iran’s proxies were getting bolder in terms of attacking Israel itself. In the days before the bombing in Damascus, Iran-backed militias in Iraq [took credit for two strikes on Israel](https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-794673) — one on the southern port city of Eilat and one on a Christian village in Galilee. These attacks caused only light damage and no injuries. “The only thing that the Iranians haven’t yet done, which they could do but would be bold, would be to launch missiles from Iran itself at Israel,” said Lister. Though Iran’s proxies — most notably Hezbollah — have directly attacked Israeli soil and Iran has [launched missiles](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-revolutionary-guards-say-they-have-attacked-espionage-centers-iraqs-erbil-2024-01-15/) at what it says was an Israeli intelligence facility in Iraq, it has also [made very clear](https://www.timesofisrael.com/khamenei-reportedly-told-hamas-chief-iran-will-not-directly-enter-war/) it has no desire for a direct shooting war with Israel, which it is in no position to win and could be devastating for its own regime and population. Maloney suspects this calculation has not changed, even after Zahedi’s killing. “Iran is prepared to fight Israel to the last Palestinian or the last Lebanese, but there would be a significant risk for them to try to mobilize any military response that can be directly attributable to them,” she said. “They’ve made an art form of avoiding direct war with Israel.” ### Washington’s dilemma Israel has been [periodically bombing targets](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/israeli-warplanes-strike-inside-syria-time-year/story?id=20746782) linked to Iran and Hezbollah in Syria for more than a decade to keep them from gaining a military foothold on its border. It has done this with the [tacit acceptance of Russia](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/19/world/middleeast/russia-syria-israel-ukraine.html), even though Moscow backs the Assad regime and maintains its air defense systems. But Israel also almost never publicly discusses these operations. “Israel wants to be able to conduct these operations without necessarily rubbing it in the nose of the Syrian government or the Russians or others,” [Brian Finucane](https://www.crisisgroup.org/who-we-are/people/brian-finucane), a former State Department legal adviser now with the International Crisis Group, told Vox. “But that’s in tension with its obligations under international law, including its obligations under the UN Charter.” That’s because [the charter prohibits](https://www.un.org/en/about-us/un-charter/full-text) the use of force against neighboring states except in cases of self-defense. Normally, Israel would be required to present its case to the UN for an attack against the territory of Syria and Iranian military officials was justified. The [Trump administration](https://www.vox.com/trump-administration) at least [made an attempt to do this](https://www.justsecurity.org/68008/u-s-legal-defense-of-the-soleimani-strike-at-the-united-nations-a-critical-assessment/) after the Soleimani drone strike, which it argued was a response to an escalating series of attacks on US troops by Iranian militias, though many legal scholars were not convinced. Israel is unlikely to even try. Given that the attack was presumably carried out by US-supplied fighter jets — F-35s [according to Iranian officials](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68708923) — this has implications for the US as well. “As a matter of US law, the [Arms Export Control Act](https://samm.dsca.mil/glossary/arms-export-control-act-aeca#:~:text=Arms%20Export%20Control%20Act%20(AECA,%2C%20defense%20services%2C%20and%20training.) establishes an exhaustive list of purposes for which US arms may be transferred, with “legitimate self-defense” being the most pertinent,” said Finucane. A [national security](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2024/02/08/national-security-memorandum-on-safeguards-and-accountability-with-respect-to-transferred-defense-articles-and-defense-services/) memorandum issued by the [Biden administration](https://www.vox.com/joe-biden) in February also requires the secretary of state to obtain “credible and reliable” assurances that US-supplied weapons are being used in accordance with international law. “The US government needs to assess whether the strike was a prohibited use of force or lawful self-defense,” Finucane said. In the past, Israeli military actions like these have caused at least temporary ruptures in the US-Israel relationship. When Israel in 1981 [bombed a nuclear reactor](https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/iraq-nuclear-vault/2021-06-07/osirak-israels-strike-iraqs-nuclear-reactor-40-years-later) in Iraq with US-supplied aircraft, it took the incoming Reagan administration by surprise. The administration responded by backing a [UN Security Council Resolution](http://unscr.com/en/resolutions/doc/487) condemning the attack. It also temporarily suspended the sale of F-16 fighter jets. But in the current context, the event is likely to be just one more incident in a rapidly expanding conflict. It arguably [wasn’t even the Israeli airstrike that garnered](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2024/4/2/24119339/world-central-kitchen-israel-gaza-idf-killed-andres-wck) the most international attention yesterday — that would be a strike in Gaza that killed several international aid workers from the charity World Central Kitchen. For the moment at least, the Biden administration still looks set to approve [several major new weapons sales to Israel](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/01/us-new-fighter-jets-missiles-israel-00149976#:~:text=The%20Biden%20administration%20is%20weighing,person%20familiar%20with%20the%20discussions.) including fighter jets and air-to-air missiles, even as criticism of the civilian toll in Gaza continues to grow. As for the long-term impact, the attack likely won’t turn the war in Gaza into a full-blown regional war overnight. But it’s another escalation in a region that can only bear so much. “Iran is nothing if not excellent at assessing risk ladders and escalation ladders,” said Lister. What we don’t know is just how high that ladder goes.

At least seven children were killed after a roadside bomb detonated in south-western Syria, in an area where dozens of incidents have already claimed about 100 lives in 2024, state media and a war monitor reported. It remains unclear who planted the bomb in the northern countryside of conflict-stricken Daraa province, which lies between [Jordan](https://www.theguardian.com/world/jordan) and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Russian-backed Syrian government forces and their allies captured the city and province of Daraa from opposition forces in 2018. [ Eight killed by car bomb in northern Syria, war monitor says ](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/31/killed-car-bomb-northern-syria-war-monitor-azaz) Syrian state news agency Sana, citing an unnamed police official in Daraa, blamed militant groups, which are still active in the area.But the UK-based war monitor the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights accused a pro-government militia of planting the bomb in an assassination attempt, without giving further details. It says at least eight children were killed.Sana reported two other injuries in the explosion.Daraa city was known as the cradle of the Syrian uprising in 2011 that spiralled into an all-out war, now in its 14th year.In 2018, after Daraa was retaken by the government and its allies, Moscow mediated a reconciliation agreement with rebel groups which left them in charge of security in some areas, under Russian supervision. The unique reconciliation effort was a way for Moscow to alleviate concerns from [Israel](https://www.theguardian.com/world/israel) of Iran-backed militias approaching its borders and Jordan, which has a key border crossing nearby. However, an armed insurgency has continued. The observatory said the bombing is the 83rd security incident in Daraa it has documented in 2024 so far, which has led to the deaths of 100 people.

Joe Biden has vowed that US commitment to defend Israel against Iran was “ironclad” as concerns rose in Washington that a “significant” Iranian strike could happen within days, in retaliation for [the bombing of an Iranian consular building in Damascus](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/01/israeli-airstrike-on-iranian-consulate-in-damascus-kills-irgc-commander). US and allied officials fear that a strike is imminent and could come in the form of a direct missile launch from Iran, rather than an attack through a proxy like [Hezbollah](https://www.theguardian.com/world/hezbollah) in Lebanon. Israel has vowed to respond in kind to such a direct strike, raising the prospect of a regional war, which US officials now believe is more likely than at any point since the beginning of the Gaza conflict on 7 October. Biden’s pledge of support to [Israel](https://www.theguardian.com/world/israel) at the White House, intended as a deterrent, came a few hours after Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, repeated a threat to strike back against Israel over the Damascus bombing that killed 12 people, including Gen Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior figure in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and six other guard members. “When they attacked our consulate area, it was like they attacked our territory,” Khamenei said, in remarks broadcast by Iranian state TV. “The evil regime must be punished, and it will be punished.” Israel’s foreign minister, Israel Katz, responded in a post on the X social media platform, vowing that: “If Iran attacks from its territory, Israel will respond and attack in Iran.” Israel has not formally taken responsibility for the 1 April bombing, but Israeli and US officials have made clear it carried out the strike. Israel and Iran have been trading blows in Lebanon and Syria for months, but [Biden administration](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/biden-administration) officials fear that the 1 April Damascus bombing on an Iranian diplomatic building, which Tehran considers its own territory, has significantly raised the threat of the Gaza war widening into a broader conflict. Since the Damascus bombing, Tehran has sent Washington messages attributing ultimate blame for the attack on the US and warning the US to stay out of its confrontation with Israel. Biden’s pledge to Israel on the White House lawn, in a joint appearance with the Japanese prime minister, Fumio Kishida, appeared to be a response to that warning, insisting the US would not stay on the sidelines. “We also want to address the Iranian threat to launch a significant – they’re threatening to launch a significant attack in Israel,” Biden said. “As I told Prime Minister Netanyahu, our commitment to Israel’s security against these threats from Iran and its proxies is ironclad. Let me say it again, ironclad. We’re gonna do all we can to protect Israel’s security.” The Biden administration is seeking to head off a direct Iranian attack by messaging that Tehran cannot assume that US forces in the region, reinforced significantly since the start of the Gaza war, would stay out of a conflict with Israel. “We’ve been clear that we do not want this conflict to escalate or spread further in the region. We’ll continue to undertake diplomatic efforts to ensure that remains the case,” the spokesperson said. “We also retain a military presence in the region to deter those who seek to take advantage of the conflict.” Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli diplomat and adviser to prime ministers Ehud Barak and Shimon Peres, said: “The prevailing conventional wisdom is that because the attack in Damascus was directly against Iran, then that means that Iran will have to respond to retaliate directly, rather than via a proxy. “From what I’m hearing here, the most telling sign is that Khamenei has mentioned the need to retaliate twice in the last week in his sermons or whatever,” Pinkas said. “Usually, they don’t do that. Usually they are much more opaque and only commit to a response one day at the right moment and in the right place.” Among the possible targets are Israeli embassies around the world, and they have been taking extra security precautions in the wake of the Damascus bombing, but US officials also believe that a direct strike on military or government targets on Israeli territory is also a significant possibility. The US and Israeli militaries and intelligence agencies are in constant contact about the threat. [Axios reported](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/10/israel-us-iran-defense-coordination-threats) that the head of US Central Command, Gen Erik Kurilla, is due in Israel on Thursday to discuss coordination with his Israeli counterparts and the defence minister, Yoav Gallant. The ability of the Biden administration to rein in an Israeli response to an Iranian attack would very much depend on the specifics. If Iranian retaliation comes in the form of an assault on an Israeli embassy, or if an incoming Iranian missile or drone is intercepted, it may be possible to prevent escalation, officials said, but if an Iranian strike caused multiple casualties inside Israel, it would be very much harder.

When Soudade Kaadan embarked on the journey to make a film about her war-torn home city of Damascus, she was burdened by “certain expectations as to how a Syrian film should look”. “They want us to simplify the complexity of the Syrian war for western audiences,” she says. “I refuse to do that. They want films from Syria to be explanatory and informative and not a film with storytelling, with a personal point of view. [](https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/article/2024/may/02/director-soudade-kaadan-war-movie-without-bloodshed-syria-nezouh-damascus#img-2) A poster for the film Nezouh, which is out in UK cinemas on 3 May. Photograph: Nezouh Ltd/BFI -/Film4 “I don’t go to see a film here in the UK to understand what happened in Brexit. You can’t ask a film to be a guidebook, nor a newsreel.” What resulted was [Nezouh](https://www.modernfilms.com/nezouh), her carefully choreographed, at times dreamlike and unconventional film about a Syrian family reluctant to leave a besieged neighbourhood in the city, even after a missile creates a giant hole in their home, “exposing them to the outside world”. The idea of Nezouh, a word in Arabic that refers to the displacement of souls, water and people, came to Kaadan after she saw a photo shared on social media of a destroyed house in the Syrian capital in 2012. What started as [a popular uprising in Syria](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/14/syria-civil-war-five-years-guardian-reporting) against the government of president Bashar al-Assad in March 2011, quickly descended into a full-blown civil war, that has [killed more than half a million people](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-syria). Filmed during the pandemic in Gaziantep, a city in southern Turkey, [Nezouh](https://youtu.be/gb_o2dv1dY4) is shot by celebrated cinematographer [Hélène Louvart](https://www.imdb.com/name/nm0522173/), and is set in 2013. The film won the Armani Beauty audience award at the 2022 Venice film festival and is the 2023 winner of the Amnesty International human rights award at Rome MedFilm festival. The film shows no one dying and there is no sign of bloodshed on the screen, while the usual action scenes which typically dominate Middle Eastern war movies are missing. Instead, by combining dark humour and magical realism, Kaadan delivers a delicate human story with universal appeal. “I believe that the female gaze and lens is different, especially in war movies. Male directors like big action, battlefields and graphic scenes, and women are more interested in the micro changes unravelling in the family or in society,” she says. “We film things differently. It’s the small things that interest me, the things that you don’t see on the news.” She says she “didn’t want the audience to go out and say ‘those poor Syrians’”. “I wanted to show a film where you can see our tragedy with dignity, when you can sympathise with us and not see us only as victims. I opted for dark humour because I believe we laugh with people who we feel equal with,” she says. Nezouh starts with shots of a father, Motaz, working on a generator to replace the electricity that has been cut off in the family home. War is shaking up the family dynamics as Motaz’s wife, Hala, and 14-year-old daughter, Zeina, contemplate becoming refugees – against his wishes. A central theme in Kaadan’s multilayered story is that of Zeina and neighbour Amer’s coming-of-age attraction. “When you lose everything, the only thing left is hope. A Syrian playwright, Saadallah Wannous, famously said that [‘we are sentenced to hope’](https://www.thenationalnews.com/arts-culture/books/syrian-playwright-saadallah-wannous-can-still-reach-his-audiences-two-decades-after-his-death-1.836149). Because this is the only way to continue,” Kaadan says. [skip past newsletter promotion](https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/article/2024/may/02/director-soudade-kaadan-war-movie-without-bloodshed-syria-nezouh-damascus#EmailSignup-skip-link-16) Sign up to Global Dispatch Get a different world view with a roundup of the best news, features and pictures, curated by our global development team **Privacy Notice:** Newsletters may contain info about charities, online ads, and content funded by outside parties. For more information see our [Privacy Policy](https://www.theguardian.com/help/privacy-policy). We use Google reCaptcha to protect our website and the Google [Privacy Policy](https://policies.google.com/privacy) and [Terms of Service](https://policies.google.com/terms) apply. after newsletter promotion Nezouh is Kaadan’s second feature film after the award-winning [The Day I Lost My Shadow](https://www.netflix.com/gb/title/81418317), which is about a single mother searching the war-scarred outskirts of Damascus for a gas cylinder. Born in France, Kaadan was raised in Damascus and lived there with her parents and three siblings before and during the first years of war. It was after the bombing started in her neighbourhood that she decided to leave. In December 2012, she moved to Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, a two-hour drive away, and lived there until 2020. [](https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/article/2024/may/02/director-soudade-kaadan-war-movie-without-bloodshed-syria-nezouh-damascus#img-3) Zeina, 14, who contemplates becoming a refugee against the wishes of her father, in a still from the film. Photograph: Nezouh Ltd/BFI -/Film4 Kaadan now lives in London, having come to the UK on an exceptional talent visa, but says she wouldn’t have hesitated to seek asylum and become a refugee if she’d had no other option. “I think it’s a right, when you can’t go back to your country, to seek asylum,” she says. “Nezouh focuses on how difficult a decision it was for the family to leave. I wanted the audience to understand, and say ‘it’s crazy to stay’, and make them arrive at the point they ask themselves ‘so why are they not leaving?’ “If there is understanding of how difficult it is to leave, and to be displaced or a refugee, the attitudes in society could change and we wouldn’t have [the Rwanda bill](https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/apr/22/rwanda-deportations-bill-passes-parliament-sunak) for example,” she adds. _[Nezouh](https://url6.mailanyone.net/scanner?m=1s1SvK-0004Fb-4l&d=4%7Cmail%2F90%2F1714404000%2F1s1SvK-0004Fb-4l%7Cin6f%7C57e1b682%7C10717690%7C7962607%7C662FBC8A4F64F0F282C2A9B122ECA2D0&o=%2Fphto%3A%2Fytsg.ut_e%2Fbub4Yd1vd2o&s=-fAK00s4_To3nv4OGMR5auXhfds), a UK-French-Syrian production funded by the BFI and Film4__, is [out in UK and Irish cinemas](https://www.modernfilms.com/nezouh) on 3 May_

Show key events only Please turn on JavaScript to use this feature **The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights**, a UK-based war monitor, has given an updated death toll resulting from the Israeli strikes overnight across [Syria](https://www.theguardian.com/world/syria). The death toll is now 25, up from 18 earlier. The war monitor said among the people killed were “five civilians, four soldiers and intelligence personnel and 13 Syrians working with pro-Iran groups”. Three more bodies were unidentified, the observatory added. The observatory described the Sunday night strike as “one of the most violent Israeli attacks” in Syria in years and said it was carried out with 14 missiles. The Syrian state news agency is reporting that 16 people were killed. The Guardian has not yet independently verified these figures. [Share](mailto:?subject=Middle%20East%20crisis:%20Israeli%20strikes%20on%20Syria%20kill%20at%20least%2025%20people,%20war%20monitor%20says&body=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/sep/09/middle-east-crisis-seven-killed-in-israeli-airstrike-on-iran-linked-military-site-in-syria-says-war-monitor?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-66ded0f58f08a07a6f4cec33#block-66ded0f58f08a07a6f4cec33) Show key events only Please turn on JavaScript to use this feature **Israel’s energy minister Eli Cohen has warned the international community that it should not complain if Israel “acts with force to exact a heavy price from Lebanon” if the community is unable to “restrain” Hezbollah.** Describing Hezbollah as “a terrorist organization that deliberately fires at residential buildings with the intent to kill Israeli civilians” he included in a social media post an image purporting to show damage to a building from an aerial attack. > Hezbollah is a terrorist organization that deliberately fires at residential buildings with the intent to kill Israeli civilians. > If the international community cannot restrain Hezbollah, it shouldn't complain when we act with force and exact a heavy price from Lebanon and… [pic.twitter.com/WNeTUJbZIa](https://t.co/WNeTUJbZIa) > > — אלי כהן | Eli Cohen (@elicoh1) [September 9, 2024](https://twitter.com/elicoh1/status/1833105770944033146?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw) Emanuel Fabian, military correspondent for the Times of Israel, reports that a barrage of 15 rockets has been fired into Israel from the direction of Lebanon. Citing the IDF, he writes that “The rockets struck open areas, and there are no reports of injuries.” Earlier a drone from the direction of Lebanon was reported to have struck a high-rise building in the Israeli city of **Nahariya**. [Share](mailto:?subject=Middle%20East%20crisis:%20Israeli%20strikes%20on%20Syria%20kill%20at%20least%2025%20people,%20war%20monitor%20says&body=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/sep/09/middle-east-crisis-seven-killed-in-israeli-airstrike-on-iran-linked-military-site-in-syria-says-war-monitor?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-66dede908f08a07a6f4cecdc#block-66dede908f08a07a6f4cecdc) **In a statement on its official Telegram channel, Israel’s military has claimed to have located “a machine used to produce weapons” in the Zeitoun area of northern [Gaza](https://www.theguardian.com/world/gaza).** It stated that troops “raided terror targets where terrorists had embedded themselves, eliminated dozens of terrorists and dismantled numerous terrorist infrastructures” in the area. The claims have not been independently verified. [Share](mailto:?subject=Middle%20East%20crisis:%20Israeli%20strikes%20on%20Syria%20kill%20at%20least%2025%20people,%20war%20monitor%20says&body=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/sep/09/middle-east-crisis-seven-killed-in-israeli-airstrike-on-iran-linked-military-site-in-syria-says-war-monitor?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-66deda028f086598f6765c44#block-66deda028f086598f6765c44) **Bezalel Smotrich, the hardline finance minister in Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, has again today reiterated that he sees it as his life’s mission to “thwart the establishment of a Palestinian state”.** In a post to social media, [echoing words he said back in June](https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/24/israeli-far-right-minister-bezalel-smotrich-annex-west-bank), Smotrich said: > My life’s mission is to build the land of Israel and thwart the establishment of a Palestinian state that would endanger the state of Israel. It is not political. It is national and existential. > > This is the reason why I took upon myself, in addition to the position of minister of finance, also the responsibility for the civil issues in Judea and Samaria. \[An Israeli term for the occupied West Bank\] > > I will continue to work with all my might so that the half million settlers who are on the frontline and under fire will enjoy the rights of every citizen in Israel and to establish facts on the ground that will prevent the establishment of a Palestinian terrorist state that will be a forward Iranian base for the next massacre. [Share](mailto:?subject=Middle%20East%20crisis:%20Israeli%20strikes%20on%20Syria%20kill%20at%20least%2025%20people,%20war%20monitor%20says&body=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/sep/09/middle-east-crisis-seven-killed-in-israeli-airstrike-on-iran-linked-military-site-in-syria-says-war-monitor?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-66ded8548f086598f6765c33#block-66ded8548f086598f6765c33) * **The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights**, a UK-based war monitor, has said that 25 people were killed in overnight Israeli airstrikes on Syria. Iran described the airstrikes as a “criminal” attack on Syria. The main target appeared to be a military research centre in Masyaf associated with Syria’s chemical and ballistic missiles programme but explosions were also heard in Damascus, Homs and Tartus. * **Benny Gantz**, the centre-right National Unity party leader and former defence minister, has reportedly said that Israel should shift its focus toward Hezbollah and the Lebanese border. “The story of Hamas is old news,” Gantz [was quoted as saying](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/sep/09/middle-east-crisis-seven-killed-in-israeli-airstrike-on-iran-linked-military-site-in-syria-says-war-monitor?page=with:block-66dea43d8f086598f67659df#block-66dea43d8f086598f67659df) at a Middle East forum in Washington DC. He said that, instead, “the story of Iran and its proxies all around the area and what they are trying to do is the real issue.” * The UN human rights chief, **Volker Turk**, [said](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/sep/09/middle-east-crisis-seven-killed-in-israeli-airstrike-on-iran-linked-military-site-in-syria-says-war-monitor?page=with:block-66deb9388f08a07a6f4ceafa#block-66deb9388f08a07a6f4ceafa) that ending the war in Gaza is a priority and asked countries to act on what he called Israel’s “blatant disregard” for international law in the occupied [Palestinian territories](https://www.theguardian.com/world/palestinian-territories). * The director of Northern Gaza’s **Kamal Adwan hospital**, **Hussam Abu Safia**, [warned](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/sep/09/middle-east-crisis-seven-killed-in-israeli-airstrike-on-iran-linked-military-site-in-syria-says-war-monitor?page=with:block-66de9a128f080b4351299434#block-66de9a128f080b4351299434) that the hospital will be out of service within 48 hours due to fuel shortages and a lack of critical medical supplies. Safia said fuel shortages in the intensive care unit could lead to the deaths of dozens of children. [Share](mailto:?subject=Middle%20East%20crisis:%20Israeli%20strikes%20on%20Syria%20kill%20at%20least%2025%20people,%20war%20monitor%20says&body=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/sep/09/middle-east-crisis-seven-killed-in-israeli-airstrike-on-iran-linked-military-site-in-syria-says-war-monitor?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-66ded05c8f086598f6765bba#block-66ded05c8f086598f6765bba) The Syrian foreign ministry has condemned the overnight Israeli strikes on [Syria](https://www.theguardian.com/world/syria) as an act of blatant aggression. In addition to the people killed and injured in the attack, it had caused “material damage to some residential areas”, the ministry said in a statement reported by Syria’s official news agency, Sana. Two regional intelligence sources told Reuters that a major military research centre for chemical arms production located near **Masyaf**, in **Hama province** near the Mediterranean coast, had been hit several times. They said it was believed to house a team of Iranian military experts involved in weapons production. “We do not confirm what was reported by media outlets linked to the Zionist regime (Israel) about an attack on an Iranian centre or a centre under Iran’s protection”, Iran’s foreign minister spokesperson Nasser Kanaani told journalists. [Share](mailto:?subject=Middle%20East%20crisis:%20Israeli%20strikes%20on%20Syria%20kill%20at%20least%2025%20people,%20war%20monitor%20says&body=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/sep/09/middle-east-crisis-seven-killed-in-israeli-airstrike-on-iran-linked-military-site-in-syria-says-war-monitor?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-66dece3a8f08a07a6f4cec14#block-66dece3a8f08a07a6f4cec14) **The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights**, a UK-based war monitor, has given an updated death toll resulting from the Israeli strikes overnight across [Syria](https://www.theguardian.com/world/syria). The death toll is now 25, up from 18 earlier. The war monitor said among the people killed were “five civilians, four soldiers and intelligence personnel and 13 Syrians working with pro-Iran groups”. Three more bodies were unidentified, the observatory added. The observatory described the Sunday night strike as “one of the most violent Israeli attacks” in Syria in years and said it was carried out with 14 missiles. The Syrian state news agency is reporting that 16 people were killed. The Guardian has not yet independently verified these figures. [Share](mailto:?subject=Middle%20East%20crisis:%20Israeli%20strikes%20on%20Syria%20kill%20at%20least%2025%20people,%20war%20monitor%20says&body=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/sep/09/middle-east-crisis-seven-killed-in-israeli-airstrike-on-iran-linked-military-site-in-syria-says-war-monitor?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-66ded0f58f08a07a6f4cec33#block-66ded0f58f08a07a6f4cec33) Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under huge pressure to agree a hostage-for-peace deal with Hamas that has been under negotiation for several months. A major impasse in the negotiations has been the Philadelphi corridor along Gaza’s border with Egypt and the Netzarim east-west corridor across the territory. Netanyahu has insisted that Israel retain control of the corridors to prevent smuggling and catch militant fighters. [Hamas](https://www.theguardian.com/world/hamas) is demanding the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. The Philadelphi corridor only emerged as an Israeli government talking point in recent weeks, and was not part of the plan that the US president, Joe Biden, had presented in May, which the Israeli government said at the time it accepted. About 250 hostages were taken by the Hamas-led 7 October attacks on southern Israel, in which about 1,200 people were killed. 97 hostages abducted during the attack remain in [Gaza](https://www.theguardian.com/world/gaza), including the bodies of at least 33 confirmed dead by the Israel Defense Forces, according to the Times of Israel. An Israeli official told the outlet that the Israeli government still expects a new US proposal for a hostage deal to be presented in the future. “We are waiting,” says the official. “The Americans are being cautious, they don’t want to put forward a deal that they know will be rejected by Hamas. They know that Hamas is the one putting obstacles in the way.” “Just because it’s not happening soon doesn’t mean it won’t happen,” the official added.  'It's time for this war to end': Joe Biden presents new Gaza ceasefire plan – video [Share](mailto:?subject=Middle%20East%20crisis:%20Israeli%20strikes%20on%20Syria%20kill%20at%20least%2025%20people,%20war%20monitor%20says&body=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/sep/09/middle-east-crisis-seven-killed-in-israeli-airstrike-on-iran-linked-military-site-in-syria-says-war-monitor?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-66dec8618f08a07a6f4cebba#block-66dec8618f08a07a6f4cebba) Here are some more remarks given by **Volker Turk**, the UN’s human rights chief, in the traditional opening address to sessions of the human rights council, which typically list a wide range of pressing global concerns. Its five-week autumn session opened today. Turk said: > _I urge voters to ask themselves which of the political platforms or candidates will work for the human rights of everyone._ > > _And I urge all voters to be vigilant. Be wary of the shrill voices, the ‘strongman’ types that throw glitter in our eyes, offering illusory solutions that deny reality._ [Share](mailto:?subject=Middle%20East%20crisis:%20Israeli%20strikes%20on%20Syria%20kill%20at%20least%2025%20people,%20war%20monitor%20says&body=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/sep/09/middle-east-crisis-seven-killed-in-israeli-airstrike-on-iran-linked-military-site-in-syria-says-war-monitor?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-66dec7118f086598f6765b2d#block-66dec7118f086598f6765b2d) The director of the Karama Border Crossing police, Mustafa Dawabsheh, was quoted by Wafa, the Palestinian news agency, as saying that **the King Hussein Bridge** (also known as the Allenby Bridge crossing) will be closed today to the movement of departing and arriving passengers and cargo. On Sunday, three Israeli workers were killed at the border crossing between the occupied West Bank and Jordan when a Jordanian truck driver opened fire on them. You can read more on this story [here](https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/sep/08/senior-gaza-aid-official-and-family-killed-by-israeli-airstrike-on-home). [Share](mailto:?subject=Middle%20East%20crisis:%20Israeli%20strikes%20on%20Syria%20kill%20at%20least%2025%20people,%20war%20monitor%20says&body=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/sep/09/middle-east-crisis-seven-killed-in-israeli-airstrike-on-iran-linked-military-site-in-syria-says-war-monitor?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-66dec0868f086598f6765acd#block-66dec0868f086598f6765acd) The UN human rights chief has said that ending the war in Gaza is a priority and asked countries to act on what he called Israel’s “blatant disregard” for international law in the occupied [Palestinian territories](https://www.theguardian.com/world/palestinian-territories). “States must not – cannot – accept blatant disregard for international law, including binding decisions of the (UN) security council and orders of the International Court of Justice (ICJ), neither in this nor any other situation,” the UN high commissioner for human rights, **Volker Turk**, said in a speech at the opening of the UN human rights council in Geneva. [He cited an opinion](https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/19/israels-settlement-policies-break-international-law-court-finds) released by the UN top court in July that called Israel’s occupation illegal and said this situation must be “comprehensively addressed”. Israel rejected the opinion and said a political settlement can only be reached through negotiations. [](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/sep/09/middle-east-crisis-seven-killed-in-israeli-airstrike-on-iran-linked-military-site-in-syria-says-war-monitor#img-1) Volker Turk presents a global update on human rights in the world during the opening of the 57th session of the human rights council at the UN headquarters in Geneva in Switzerland. Photograph: Salvatore Di Nolfi/EPA Reading the court’s historic, albeit non-binding, opinion at the time, the president of the ICJ, Nawaf Salam, said: > _The court considers that the violations by Israel of the prohibition of the acquisition of territory by force and of the Palestinian people’s right to self-determination have a direct impact on the legality of the continued presence of Israel, as an occupying power, in the occupied Palestinian territory._ > > _The sustained abuse by Israel of its position as an occupying power, through annexation and an assertion of permanent control over the occupied Palestinian territory and continued frustration of the right of the Palestinian people to self-determination, violates fundamental principles of international law and renders Israel’s presence in the occupied Palestinian territory unlawful._ Breaches of international law identified by the court included: * Forcible evictions, extensive house demolitions and restrictions on residence and movement. * The transfer by Israel of settlers to the West Bank and East Jerusalem and maintenance of their presence. * Its failure to prevent or to punish attacks by settlers. * Restricting the access of the Palestinian population to water. * Israel’s use of the natural resources in the occupied Palestinian territory. * The extension of Israel’s law to the West Bank and East Jerusalem. [Share](mailto:?subject=Middle%20East%20crisis:%20Israeli%20strikes%20on%20Syria%20kill%20at%20least%2025%20people,%20war%20monitor%20says&body=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/sep/09/middle-east-crisis-seven-killed-in-israeli-airstrike-on-iran-linked-military-site-in-syria-says-war-monitor?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-66deb9388f08a07a6f4ceafa#block-66deb9388f08a07a6f4ceafa) Since the war began last October, schools have been bombed or turned into shelters for displaced people, leaving Gaza’s estimated 625,000 school-age children unable to attend classes. [Gaza](https://www.theguardian.com/world/gaza) and the occupied West Bank have internationally high literacy levels, and the under-resourced education system was a source of pride among many Palestinians. Israel’s war in Gaza has devastated the education system, casting a long shadow over many children’s future, adding to the legacy of trauma and loss from the conflict. Here are some figures released by the Palestinian education ministry: * More than 600,000 students, since 7 October 2023, have been deprived of their right to a free and safe education. * More than 25,000 children have been killed or injured in Israeli attacks, including more than 10,000 students. * About 90% of the 307 government school buildings have been destroyed In a press release, [the ministry said](https://www.moe.edu.ps/c/30235): > _Despite the expansion of the scope of targeting, the ministry is moving forward with all hope towards protecting education and providing all opportunities for our children in the Gaza Strip as the ministry is working and has begun to launch virtual schools and open our schools in the West Bank to our students in Gaza, and determination leads us to provide as much education as possible, even if inside dilapidated tents._ > > _The right to education is an approach and practice, not a luxury, theory and slogans._ [Share](mailto:?subject=Middle%20East%20crisis:%20Israeli%20strikes%20on%20Syria%20kill%20at%20least%2025%20people,%20war%20monitor%20says&body=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/sep/09/middle-east-crisis-seven-killed-in-israeli-airstrike-on-iran-linked-military-site-in-syria-says-war-monitor?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-66deb3558f08a07a6f4ceace#block-66deb3558f08a07a6f4ceace) Iran has accused Israel of carrying out what it called a “criminal” attack in [Syria](https://www.theguardian.com/world/syria), where 18 people were reported to have been killed. “We strongly condemn this criminal attack by the Zionist regime on Syrian soil,” foreign ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanani told a news conference in Tehran, calling on Israel’s backers to “stop supporting and arming it”, according to Agence France-Presse (AFP). Since the 7 October attacks by Hamas on Israeli civilians and soldiers, Israel has escalated its strikes on Iranian-backed militia targets in Syria and has also struck its army air defences and some forces. Israel has carried out hundreds of strikes on targets inside government-controlled parts Syria in recent years, but it rarely acknowledges or discusses the operations. The strikes often target Syrian forces or Iranian-backed groups. Israel has vowed to stop Iranian entrenchment in Syria, particularly since Syria is a key route for Iran to send weapons to the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. [Share](mailto:?subject=Middle%20East%20crisis:%20Israeli%20strikes%20on%20Syria%20kill%20at%20least%2025%20people,%20war%20monitor%20says&body=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/sep/09/middle-east-crisis-seven-killed-in-israeli-airstrike-on-iran-linked-military-site-in-syria-says-war-monitor?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-66deb1f58f08a07a6f4ceab4#block-66deb1f58f08a07a6f4ceab4) **The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights**, a UK-based war monitor, has given an updated death toll resulting from the “intense Israeli strikes” overnight across central [Syria](https://www.theguardian.com/world/syria). It is now saying 18 people, including eight Syrian fighters, were killed and 32 others injured. The war monitor said previously that seven people were killed in the strikes that destroyed military and scientific facilities where Iran-backed armed groups were said to have been present (you can read more details [here](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/sep/09/middle-east-crisis-seven-killed-in-israeli-airstrike-on-iran-linked-military-site-in-syria-says-war-monitor?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-66de93c28f086598f6765942#block-66de93c28f086598f6765942)). [](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/sep/09/middle-east-crisis-seven-killed-in-israeli-airstrike-on-iran-linked-military-site-in-syria-says-war-monitor#img-2) A huge fire burning overnight in the Masyaf area in Syria's central Hama province. Photograph: SANA/AFP/Getty Images [Share](mailto:?subject=Middle%20East%20crisis:%20Israeli%20strikes%20on%20Syria%20kill%20at%20least%2025%20people,%20war%20monitor%20says&body=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/sep/09/middle-east-crisis-seven-killed-in-israeli-airstrike-on-iran-linked-military-site-in-syria-says-war-monitor?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-66deaa898f08a07a6f4cea7a#block-66deaa898f08a07a6f4cea7a) **Benny Gantz**, the centre-right National Unity party leader and former defence minister, has reportedly said that Israel should shift its focus toward Hezbollah and the Lebanese border. Speaking in Washington DC at a Middle East forum, [he was quoted by the Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-september-9-2024/) as having said: > _We have enough forces to deal with Gaza and we should concentrate on what is going on in the north._ > > _The time of the north has come and actually I think we are late on this._ > > _In Gaza, we have crossed a decisive point of the campaign. We can conduct anything we want in Gaza. We should seek to have a deal to get out our hostages but if we cannot in the coming time, a few days or few weeks, or whatever it is, we should go up north._ > > _We are capable of … hitting the state of Lebanon if needed._ “The story of Hamas is old news,” Gantz, the former army chief added, saying instead that “the story of Iran and its proxies all around the area and what they are trying to do is the real issue.” [](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/sep/09/middle-east-crisis-seven-killed-in-israeli-airstrike-on-iran-linked-military-site-in-syria-says-war-monitor#img-3) Benny Gantz says Israel should shift its focus toward Hezbollah. Photograph: Nir Elias/Reuters Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah have been trading near-daily cross-border fire since last October, with Hezbollah saying they are acting in solidarity with Palestinians affected by Israel’s war in [Gaza](https://www.theguardian.com/world/gaza). Gantz, a major rival to Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, joined the now disbanded three-man war cabinet as a minister without portfolio in the aftermath of Hamas’s 7 October attack, in which about 1,200 people were killed and 250 hostages taken. But as Israel’s war in Gaza dragged on, disagreements over strategy emerged, culminating in Gantz accusing Netanyahu of pushing strategic considerations such as a hostage deal aside for his [own political survival](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jun/04/biden-netanyahu-ceasefire-israel-gaza-war). He resigned from his position in June. [Share](mailto:?subject=Middle%20East%20crisis:%20Israeli%20strikes%20on%20Syria%20kill%20at%20least%2025%20people,%20war%20monitor%20says&body=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/sep/09/middle-east-crisis-seven-killed-in-israeli-airstrike-on-iran-linked-military-site-in-syria-says-war-monitor?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-66dea43d8f086598f67659df#block-66dea43d8f086598f67659df) More on the deadly overnight Israeli airstrikes on central [Syria](https://www.theguardian.com/world/syria). The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a UK-based war monitor, has said that at least four of the people killed were civilians. Syrian state media says the total number of people killed in the strikes is 14, with more than 40 injured. The strikes damaged a highway in Hama province, sparking fires. Local media also reported strikes around the coastal city of Tartus, along with the city of Homs. [Share](mailto:?subject=Middle%20East%20crisis:%20Israeli%20strikes%20on%20Syria%20kill%20at%20least%2025%20people,%20war%20monitor%20says&body=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/sep/09/middle-east-crisis-seven-killed-in-israeli-airstrike-on-iran-linked-military-site-in-syria-says-war-monitor?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-66de9da28f08a07a6f4cea1f#block-66de9da28f08a07a6f4cea1f) The director of Northern Gaza’s **Kamal Adwan hospital**, **Hussam Abu Safia**, has described the dire conditions at the health facility amid continuing Israeli airstrikes. [In an interview with Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/9/9/israels-war-on-gaza-live-school-year-starts-without-60000-gaza-students), he warned that the hospital will be out of service within 48 hours due to fuel shortages and a lack of critical medical supplies. Safia also said fuel shortages in the intensive care unit could lead to the deaths of dozens of children. Conditions are dire across Gaza, with severe shortages of water, medicine and fuel. Few hospitals are functional. Israel’s bombing campaign in Gaza has decimated the territory’s healthcare system, with 31 of 36 hospitals damaged or destroyed, according to the World Health Organization It has left those with chronic conditions unable to access basic care. [Share](mailto:?subject=Middle%20East%20crisis:%20Israeli%20strikes%20on%20Syria%20kill%20at%20least%2025%20people,%20war%20monitor%20says&body=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/sep/09/middle-east-crisis-seven-killed-in-israeli-airstrike-on-iran-linked-military-site-in-syria-says-war-monitor?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-66de9a128f080b4351299434#block-66de9a128f080b4351299434) Syria’s state media also reported that the strikes that hit [Syria](https://www.theguardian.com/world/syria) on Sunday caused two fires, which firefighters have been working to extinguish. Israel usually does not comment on attacks in Syria and has not given a response to this latest attack, which was reported to have come in waves. [Share](mailto:?subject=Middle%20East%20crisis:%20Israeli%20strikes%20on%20Syria%20kill%20at%20least%2025%20people,%20war%20monitor%20says&body=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/sep/09/middle-east-crisis-seven-killed-in-israeli-airstrike-on-iran-linked-military-site-in-syria-says-war-monitor?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-66de99018f080b435129942e#block-66de99018f080b435129942e) [As we mentioned in the opening summary](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/sep/09/middle-east-crisis-seven-killed-in-israeli-airstrike-on-iran-linked-military-site-in-syria-says-war-monitor?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-66de47b88f08a07a6f4ce847#block-66de47b88f08a07a6f4ce847), a series of Israeli strikes were reported to have hit multiple areas in central Syria on Sunday. Syrian state media said on Monday that the overnight Israeli strikes killed at least 14 people in central **Hama** province, raising the earlier death toll of seven. Two regional intelligence sources told Reuters that a major military research centre for chemical arms production located near Masyaf had been hit several times. It is believed to house a team of Iranian military experts involved in weapons production. “The number of martyrs resulting from the Israeli aggression on a number of sites in the vicinity of Masyaf has risen to 14 martyrs and 43 wounded including six critically,” official news agency Sana reported citing a medical source. These figures are yet to be independently verified by the Guardian. “At around 23:20 on Sunday evening, the Israeli enemy launched an air aggression from the direction of northwestern Lebanon, targeting a number of military sites in the central region (of Syria),” a military source told the news agency. “Our air defence systems confronted the aggression’s missiles and shot down some of them,” the source added, without providing further details. The strike in Syria reportedly targeted several sites near the cities of **Homs**, Hama and **Tartus**. [Share](mailto:?subject=Middle%20East%20crisis:%20Israeli%20strikes%20on%20Syria%20kill%20at%20least%2025%20people,%20war%20monitor%20says&body=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/sep/09/middle-east-crisis-seven-killed-in-israeli-airstrike-on-iran-linked-military-site-in-syria-says-war-monitor?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-66de93c28f086598f6765942#block-66de93c28f086598f6765942) Welcome to our live coverage of Israel’s war on [Gaza](https://www.theguardian.com/world/gaza) and the wider crisis in the Middle East. Israeli airstrikes in central [Syria](https://www.theguardian.com/world/syria) have killed at least seven people, including three civilians, a UK-based war monitor has said, in an attack believed to be targeting a military scientific research centre. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said: > _The number of dead in the Israeli strikes on the Masyaf region stands at seven, namely three civilians, including a man and his son who were in a car, and four unidentified soldiers._ > > _Thirteen violent explosions rang out in the zone housing scientific research centres in Masyaf where pro-Iranian groups and weapons development experts are present._ Reuters sources reported that a major military research centre for chemical arms production believed to house Iranian military experts was hit several times. Since the start of the civil war in Syria in 2011, Israel has carried out hundreds of strikes there, targeting pro-Iranian groups in particular. Here is a summary of the latest developments: * **Jordan’s foreign ministry has said it believes the killing of three Israeli civilians at a border crossing in the occupied West Bank was an individual act.** A gunman crossing from Jordan [carried out the shooting](https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/sep/08/senior-gaza-aid-official-and-family-killed-by-israeli-airstrike-on-home) before security forces shot him dead on Sunday, Israeli authorities said earlier. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said the victims were private security guards. The Jordanian ministry [said](https://x.com/ForeignMinistry/status/1832888267600957606) the attack was being investigated and that it “rejected and condemned violence and targeting civilians for any reason”. Israel announced the closure of its land crossings with Jordan, and later said all would reopen on Monday. * **Speaking after the attack, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said it was “a difficult day”,** adding: “A loathsome terrorist murdered in cold blood three of our civilians.” Israeli President Isaac Herzog, whose role is largely ceremonial, urged all parties to investigate the incident to prevent repeats. * **An Israeli airstrike in northern Gaza has killed a senior aid official and four members of his family.** Gaza’s civil defence group, which fights fires and rescues people trapped in rubble, said its deputy director for northern [Gaza](https://www.theguardian.com/world/gaza), Mohammed Morsi, had been killed in an airstrike. The organisation said four members of his family also died in the bombing of Morsi’s house in the urban Jabaliya refugee camp, north-east of Gaza City. * **Huge numbers of Israelis again poured into the streets on Sunday to protest against the government’s failure to secure the return of remaining hostages in Gaza**. The new protest came a week after one of the largest demonstrations of the war after the discovery of another six dead hostages in Gaza, and after Netanyahu pushed back against pressure for a ceasefire deal and declared that “no one will preach to me”. * The **Qatar Red Crescent** and the UN agency for **Palestinians** (Unrwa) signed an agreement on Sunday, with $4.5m from a Qatari state development fund, to aid more than 4,400 stranded Palestinian workers and patients from Gaza in the West Bank. [Share](mailto:?subject=Middle%20East%20crisis:%20Israeli%20strikes%20on%20Syria%20kill%20at%20least%2025%20people,%20war%20monitor%20says&body=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/sep/09/middle-east-crisis-seven-killed-in-israeli-airstrike-on-iran-linked-military-site-in-syria-says-war-monitor?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-66de47b88f08a07a6f4ce847#block-66de47b88f08a07a6f4ce847)

Reuters People are now fleeing on foot into Syria after an Israeli strike created a huge crater in the road An Israeli air strike has hit near the main border crossing point for people fleeing the escalating bombing and ground campaign in Lebanon for neighbouring Syria. Israel's military said it had hit Hezbollah targets near the Masnaa crossing, and earlier claimed the group was using it to smuggle weapons into Lebanon. The strike on Friday destroyed a section of the road and effectively cut off vehicle access. People are still able to make the journey on foot, with pictures showing families clambering over rubble and scrambling through the four-metre crater in the road to get out of the country. More than 300,000 people have left Lebanon for Syria in the past 10 days to flee the bombing, according to Lebanese government figures. The strike on Friday hit the road 700m from the checkpoint on the Lebanese side, and around 5km (3.1 miles) from the border itself. Aid workers said the destruction of the road near Masnaa crossing hinders both the movement of people and also food and humanitarian supplies. * [BBC Verify: A closer look at the crater damage near Syria’s border crossing](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c39l7lv9pevt?post=asset%3A2c290de3-3f42-4599-9a71-baec5bfd467a#post) "It will mean that goods which would normally come overland through that crossing - the cheapest, most effective way to bring commodities into that country - will also not be able to be received here," Matthew Hollingworth, the director of the UN's World Food programme, told the BBC. Reuters Despite the strike people were still on the move on Friday to flee Lebanon Video shows huge crater left by strike on key route out of Lebanon Reuters The strike created a four-metre crater in the middle of the road, cutting off vehicle access Mr Hollingworth stressed that it was essential for other routes leading out of Lebanon - particularly those in the north - to remain unhindered. "We really would press that they remain open because they will be critical for people to leave, and also for humanitarian commodities to come in," he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme. The Masnaa crossing in Lebanon's east had been the main path for people to move into Syria, and then onto Jordan and the Gulf States, while in Lebanon the road had also connected west to the capital Beirut on the coast, which has been heavily bombed in recent days. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) on Friday said it had targeted a site at the border crossing where "weapons were transferred to Hezbollah", and also a 3.5km underground tunnel between Lebanon and Syria, the location of which was not specified. In a statement issued before the strike, the IDF said the crossing had become the "primary border crossing for Hezbollah's weapons transfers" and accused the group of concealing "smuggling activity among civilian trucks and vehicles". It called on Lebanon to thoroughly inspect trucks. Many people moving east are Syrian nationals living in Lebanon, who have headed back to their own country to escape Israel's bombardments. [The BBC spoke to one woman in Beirut](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c39l7lv9pevt?post=asset%3Afa695828-f196-454e-a5ec-a1d358e9bcbb#post), who had sent her son back to Syria this week because the capital was too dangerous. "I found a lot of people from our neighbourhood heading for Syria, so I sent him with them," she said. Syria's government said on Sunday that for the next week people crossing the border would no longer have to pay $100 to enter the country.  On Friday, [strikes also hit near Lebanon's only commercial airport](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c17lpydd842o), the Beirut-Rafic Hariri International Airport. The airport borders the suburb of Dahieh, Hezbollah's stronghold in the city, and a continued target of Israeli air strikes. Major strikes there one week ago killed the long-time leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah. Reports indicated that the new strikes on Friday morning were aimed at the group's new leadership, including a potential new overall leader, Hashem Safieddine. Lebanon's public health ministry said 37 people had been killed in ground and air attacks on Thursday while 151 others had been wounded. More than 2,000 people have been killed in Lebanon by Israeli air strikes since fighting began in October 2023, the Lebanese health ministry says. Israeli forces on Friday also told residents of another two dozen towns and villages in the South, including the regional capital city of Nabatieh, to leave immediately for their safety. The new order applies to communities further inland, north of the Litani river, about 30km from the border with Israel. The river is a crucial marker as Israel has previously demanded that Hezbollah withdraw to the Litani, as per the UN Security Council resolution that ended their last war in 2006. But there are concerns in Lebanon that Israel will seek to occupy part of the country's south again.

When Joe Biden last week said that his administration has been “[discussing](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/03/biden-says-us-discussing-possible-israeli-plans-to-attack-irans-oil-industry)” possible Israeli plans to attack Iran’s oil industry in retaliation for Iran’s ballistic missile attack, it left the world stunned. Notably because Mr Biden didn’t reject these plans outright, in the way that he had the day before regarding a possible strike on [Iran’s nuclear sites](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/biden-says-he-does-not-support-attack-irans-nuclear-sites-2024-10-02/). Oil prices jumped 10%, even though the US president walked back the remark the next day. The historian AJP Taylor [wrote](https://www.nybooks.com/articles/1965/05/06/the-history-of-a-j-p-taylor/) that “wars are much like road accidents” in that they had profound consequences but did not necessarily have equally profound causes. Targeted Israeli strikes on refinery complexes may not do much more than win domestic applause. Bombing Kharg Island, the heart of Iran’s oil-export operations, would cripple its economy. However, such a move might also drive up global oil prices and have an impact on American consumers just weeks before a crucial election. Washington’s sanctions have failed to stymie Iran’s oil exports, largely because [China](https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-oil-sanctions-china/32930848.html) has been willing to defy Washington. With Beijing purchasing about 90% of Iran’s crude oil, an Israeli attack on Iranian facilities would have uncertain consequences. The real risk lies in escalation, potentially drawing China into the conflict and reshaping Middle Eastern dynamics for years. The outcome of such a conflict is hard to foresee. However, the aftermath of the US invasion of Iraq serves as a reminder that destabilising actions often invite outside powers to intervene in the Middle East. Last week, Russia [conducted](https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-823460#google_vignette) airstrikes in Syria against what it said were militant groups in an area under US control. The possibility of Russian military forces and American troops colliding in Syria has been a persistent worry as the [adversaries](https://thewarhorse.org/special-forces-soldiers-reveal-first-details-of-battle-with-russian-mercenaries-in-syria/) took opposing sides in the country’s civil war. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has only sharpened the mutual antagonism. Ultimately, the impact of an Israeli attack will hinge on Iran’s response and how major global oil producers react to the likely oil shock. China could offset the loss of its [1.5m barrels](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IN/IN12267) per day of Iranian oil by turning to Saudi Arabia, which has ample spare production capacity. However, Riyadh, having recently restored ties with Tehran, is cautious about being drawn into a conflict between Israel and Iran. The desert kingdom sought to improve relations with Tehran after its costly war with the Houthis triggered a [devastating](https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/trump-sending-troops-saudi-arabia-shows-short-range-air-defenses-ncna1057461) Iranian drone attack on its oil facilities. The attack, which bypassed US Patriot missile defences, temporarily cut Riyadh’s oil production in half. An all-out war between Iran and Israel could lead to the closure of the [strait of Hormuz](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61002), the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoint, through which a quarter of all tanker-shipped crude is moved. This would be a hammer blow to the global economy. But if Iran were backed into a corner with its export capacity reduced to a smoking ruin, it might close the strait in an act of [desperation](https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/10/03/oil-markets-israel-iran-middle-east-war-conflict/). Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates reportedly refused to open their airspace to Israeli and US aircraft involved in bombing Iran last April. Both would no doubt think it prudent to do so again. War is not an acceptable and tolerable way of solving international disputes. It would be better to silence the guns in the region’s battle zones and resort to diplomacy. If leaders collectively embraced this view, the Middle East – and the world – would undoubtedly be a safer and more stable place. * _**Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a response of up to 300 words by email to be considered for publication in our [letters](https://www.theguardian.com/tone/letters) section, please [click here](mailto:[email protected]?body=Please%20include%20your%20name,%20full%20postal%20address%20and%20phone%20number%20with%20your%20letter%20below.%20Letters%20are%20usually%20published%20with%20the%20author%27s%20name%20and%20city/town/village.%20The%20rest%20of%20the%20information%20is%20for%20verification%20only%20and%20to%20contact%20you%20where%20necessary.).**_

Fadi was praying on Wednesday afternoon when the ground began to shake. At first he thought it was an earthquake, but then he saw a plume of smoke rising from his house. He rushed home and began to dig. One by one, he pulled family members from the rubble, all eight of them killed in an Israeli airstrike. “I pulled my brother out of the rubble in pieces. I found his four-year-old daughter’s hand in the branches of an olive tree 20 metres away,” he said. The owner of a gaming cafe in Bednayel, a town on the outskirts of the historic eastern Lebanese city of Baalbek, he asked only to be identified by his first name for fear of being targeted by the Israeli drones that circled overhead. The day before, Fadi’s brother Ali had asked him if his family could stay at his house since they lived next to a petrol station and he feared it would blow up in the event of an Israeli bombing; a local family had burned to death in an earlier Israeli bombing and Ali did not want his wife and two children to suffer the same fate. All four were killed on Wednesday, along with Ali’s wife’s parents and two of her sisters. Five hours before Fadi’s home was bombed, Israel’s military had ordered the residents of Baalbek and two nearby towns, Douris and Ain Bourday, to evacuate ahead of what it said were strikes on Hezbollah – the first time it had issued evacuation orders outside southern [Lebanon](https://www.theguardian.com/world/lebanon) and the southern suburbs of Beirut. But intense Israeli bombing had signalled that it was turning its focus to the eastern Bekaa valley two days before any evacuation orders were given. More than 60 people were killed on Monday last week in bombing across the valley, and by Friday the death toll from strikes in the region had surpassed 120. Bednayel, like most of the villages surrounding Baalbek that were struck by Israel, was not included in the evacuation orders, nor did it receive a warning before being bombed. “Israel’s goal is to get us to stop supporting Hezbollah – but we won’t. We’re proud to be here and we won’t leave,” Fadi said. He added that while his family supported Hezbollah politically, they were civilians and not a part of the organisation. He pulled a pair of baby socks out of his pocket, which belonged to his one-year-old nephew Hassan, and pointed to a pink ballet slipper in the rubble, which belonged to his niece Fatimah, to illustrate his point. Hezbollah traditionally enjoys strong support in the Bekaa valley, it being where many of its top officials originated and where training camps for the organisation’s recruits were held. However, the valley is the largest geographic area of Lebanon and encompasses towns with many different political and religious affiliations. In the city of Baalbek, the streets were deserted. Wednesday’s evacuation orders had caused panic, with tens of thousands of residents fleeing to safer areas, according to the city’s mayor, Moustapha al-Chall. At the centre of the city stood ancient ruins, including one of the world’s largest extant Roman temples, which was designated a world heritage site in 1982. The provincial governor instructed residents not to seek shelter near the ruins, as he could not guarantee they would be spared from bombing. [](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/04/israel-bombing-lebanon-baalbek-region#img-2) Destruction from an Israeli airstrike on Gouraud barracks in Baalbek, with the Roman ruins behind. Photograph: Nidal Solh/AFP/Getty Images A nearby Israeli air raid on Monday had already damaged the Gouraud barracks, a structure from the French-mandate era built near the ancient Roman complex. The weathered stones that made up one of the walls of the complex had been shattered and strewn across the city’s streets. Amir al-Nimr, a 21-year-old resident of Baalbek, was trapped under the debris on Monday after Israel dropped a bomb on his house, the same strike that damaged the barracks’ walls. He, unlike the other three members of his family who were in the house, survived the attack. But it left him with two fractured hips and burns all over his body. “There was nothing in our home from Hezbollah. We had sent our women to Syria but we couldn’t leave because we needed to protect the house from theft. I’m not upset for my family, I’m upset that I didn’t get to join them in heaven,” Nimr said, his voice breaking as he spoke from a hospital bed in Dar al-Amal hospital in Douris. His hair had been scorched from his scalp, one of his eyes was filled with blood and scabs had spread across his face like webbing where he had been burned. “From my point of view, this is a war against the Shia, you can see what regions of Lebanon they’re hitting. But no matter what happens, I won’t leave,” Nimr said. Those who stayed behind despite the intensifying bombing on Baalbek and surrounding areas spoke with a sense of defiance. But the majority of residents have already left, joining the more than 1.2 million people already displaced by Israeli bombing in Lebanon. About half of the 700 staff members at the Dar al-Amal hospital have left, displaced by fighting and fearful of an evacuation order that just barely includes the hospital. Three of its nurses were killed in Israeli strikes while off duty in the last month. “Our main threat now is manpower. Our other resources are available and we can manage it,” said Ali Allam, the hospital’s director. The hospital has received much of the injured and dead from nearby bombings, as well as patients evacuated from hospitals closer to Baalbek. Allam said that prior to last Monday, a sense of normalcy had returned to the hospital as the pace of Israeli bombing had slowed. That changed as Israel turned its sights on the Bekaa valley. “Maybe the good thing is that in the Bekaa, the houses are spread far apart. Economically, it will be more costly for them to bomb us. They wouldn’t get their money’s worth. But who could stop them if they finish in south \[Lebanon\]?” Allam said with a grim smile.

When the civil war in Syria threatened his village more than a decade ago, a farmer and his family fled to neighboring Lebanon. The farmer, Ali Kheir Khallu, 37, found work there growing oranges and bananas. Life was hard, he said, but at least he felt safe. That feeling vanished last month as [Israel ramped up its war with Hezbollah](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/04/world/middleeast/israel-hezbollah-lebanon.html), the powerful Lebanese militia, heavily bombing sites that it said belonged to the group. When the bombs fell near Mr. Kheir Khallu’s house, he packed up his family, left behind the new lives they had built in Lebanon and fled back to Syria, where they are now struggling to start over, yet again. “You want to make up for all that you have lost,” he said. “But you are still in shock.” As the war in Lebanon expands, more than 1.2 million people — one-fifth of the population — have [been displaced from their homes](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/16/world/middleeast/israel-lebanon-displaced-hezbollah.html), the government says. While most have sought safety in other parts of Lebanon, more than 470,000 people, mostly Syrians, have crossed into Syria in the last six weeks, aid groups say. Since Syrian rebels tried to topple the government in 2011, President Bashar al-Assad has fought to stay in power, with his forces bombing and besieging opposition communities and repeatedly using chemical weapons. The war drew in Russia, the United States, the jihadists of Islamic State and other forces, displacing about 12 million residents, or more than half the country’s population. Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and [log into](https://myaccount.nytimes.com/auth/login?response_type=cookie&client_id=vi&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F11%2F11%2Fworld%2Fmiddleeast%2Flebanon-war-syrians-returning-home.html&asset=opttrunc) your Times account, or [subscribe](https://www.nytimes.com/subscription?campaignId=89WYR&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F11%2F11%2Fworld%2Fmiddleeast%2Flebanon-war-syrians-returning-home.html) for all of The Times. Thank you for your patience while we verify access. Already a subscriber? [Log in](https://myaccount.nytimes.com/auth/login?response_type=cookie&client_id=vi&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F11%2F11%2Fworld%2Fmiddleeast%2Flebanon-war-syrians-returning-home.html&asset=opttrunc). Want all of The Times? [Subscribe](https://www.nytimes.com/subscription?campaignId=89WYR&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F11%2F11%2Fworld%2Fmiddleeast%2Flebanon-war-syrians-returning-home.html).

Syrian rebels breached the major city of Aleppo on Friday, according to the fighters and a war monitor, raising fears that the nation’s long-running civil war is reigniting with an intensity not seen in years. One rebel group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, took control of “more than half of Aleppo” within hours on Friday without resistance from Syrian government forces, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a war monitoring group based in Britain. Government forces and their Russian allies earlier launched intense airstrikes on opposition-held territory on Friday, including 23 attacks on the city of Idlib, according to the Observatory. The Russian government confirmed that it was bombing Syrian rebels, but did not specify where. Antigovernment fighters managed earlier on Friday to enter five neighborhoods in the western part of Aleppo after detonating two car bombs targeting government soldiers, according to the rebels and the Observatory. The official Syrian news agency, SANA, reported that four people were killed when rebels fired on Aleppo University, in the western part of the city. The United Nations’ humanitarian agency said that Aleppo’s international airport and some of its hospitals were closed, other hospitals were near capacity and security within the city was “rapidly deteriorating.” The rebel offensive [launched on Wednesday](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/27/world/middleeast/syria-opposition-forces-bases.html) is the most serious challenge to President Bashar al-Assad’s regime in years. And the timing of it has raised questions about whether the rebels are trying to take advantage of weakness across an alliance with Iran at the center, and groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Syrian regime closely aligned with it. Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and [log into](https://myaccount.nytimes.com/auth/login?response_type=cookie&client_id=vi&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F11%2F29%2Fworld%2Fmiddleeast%2Fsyria-war-aleppo-rebels-government.html&asset=opttrunc) your Times account, or [subscribe](https://www.nytimes.com/subscription?campaignId=89WYR&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F11%2F29%2Fworld%2Fmiddleeast%2Fsyria-war-aleppo-rebels-government.html) for all of The Times. Thank you for your patience while we verify access. Already a subscriber? [Log in](https://myaccount.nytimes.com/auth/login?response_type=cookie&client_id=vi&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F11%2F29%2Fworld%2Fmiddleeast%2Fsyria-war-aleppo-rebels-government.html&asset=opttrunc). Want all of The Times? [Subscribe](https://www.nytimes.com/subscription?campaignId=89WYR&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F11%2F29%2Fworld%2Fmiddleeast%2Fsyria-war-aleppo-rebels-government.html).

Rebel forces advanced in Syria on Sunday amid fierce fighting, capturing the airport of the major city of Aleppo and attacking the outskirts of the western city of Hama, according to local officials and the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Government troops loyal to President Bashar al-Assad were trying to repel them, they said. [The rebels had captured much of Aleppo](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/30/world/middleeast/syria-aleppo-rebels-control.html) a day earlier in a surprise offensive. They now [control a broad swath of land](https://www.nytimes.com/article/syria-civil-war.html) across the provinces of Hama, Idlib and Aleppo, in the west and northwest of Syria, according to information from local officials and the Observatory, a Britain-based war monitor. The New York Times also observed rebels in control of parts of Hama Province as well as neighborhoods in the east of the city of Aleppo and some of the countryside beyond it that were only days earlier held by government forces. Government troops were battling to defend the city of Hama from being overrun, the Observatory said. Syrian government warplanes were also bombing territory that was now rebel-held, causing civilian casualties, the monitor said. It said that government forces were receiving support from Russian fighter jets, which were striking targets across the countryside near Hama and Idlib province. Russia, which is allied with Mr. Assad, has repeatedly come to his aid since early in the civil war that broke out in 2011, after protests over Mr. Assad’s autocratic rule drew a swift and bloody military crackdown. A government statement said Mr. Assad had spoken to the leaders of the United Arab Emirates and Iraq on Saturday, vowing that Syria would “defeat the terrorists, regardless of the intensity of their attacks.” Syrian officials routinely refer to rebels as terrorists. The Syrian military also said in a statement on Saturday that its operation to push back the rebels was “successfully” progressing and that it would soon initiate a counterattack. It tried to discredit reports about rebel advances, saying that the armed groups were spreading “false news” to “undermine the morale of our people and our brave army.” Across the territory that had flipped back to the rebels, people could be seen tearing up Syrian government flags and pictures of Mr. Assad, including fighters and former Aleppo residents who were returning to their homes for the first time in years. Photos taken in Aleppo also showed the toppling of a statue that had apparently depicted Bassel al-Assad, the president’s elder brother. Hwaida Saad contributed reporting from Beirut, Lebanon, and Rania Khaled from Cairo.

Last week [I argued](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/26/opinion/trump-israel-iran.html) that the blows Israel inflicted on Iran and its most important proxy, Hezbollah, would have vast consequences for the military balance in the region. It has only taken a few days for those consequences to start showing up. Donald Trump reportedly wants the region’s conflicts quieted down by the time he comes to office. Hey — good luck with that. For starters, with Iran and Hezbollah weakened by Israel, the leader they were protecting most, the beleaguered Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, took a body blow in the last few days when anti-government rebels in Syria swept in from their countryside redoubts and swept out Assad’s army from virtually all of Aleppo, the second largest city in Syria. Alas, though, many of these Syrian rebels are not boy scouts — the group leading the charge, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, is a former Al Qaeda affiliate — and if Assad were toppled from power in Damascus, Syria, it could draw Israel in and destabilize the whole Levant. Interestingly, Turkey, which backs some of these rebel groups and had been restraining them, may have given the green light for the attack. Turkey has long been Iran’s archrival for regional domination. At the same time, a Western intelligence source tells me, a rancorous debate is afoot within Iran’s leadership over who is responsible for letting Hezbollah drag both Iran and Hezbollah into a devastating war with Israel — on behalf of Hamas — when Israel had not even attacked Hezbollah. As a result, Hezbollah’s rocket forces, meant to deter Israel from ever bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities, have now been shattered. Inside Lebanon, Hezbollah, which had become the army of the Shiites of Lebanon and imposed itself as the sacred third part of the country’s trinity — “the army, the people and the resistance” — to which every Lebanese leader had to pay homage, has dramatically lost support. Israel was so surgical in its bombing inside Lebanon, trying to hit only Hezbollah targets and pro-Hezbollah neighborhoods, that it sent the message: “If you live in places that are loyal to the Lebanese state, you are safe, but if you stay in places Hezbollah controls, you are not safe,” explained Hanin Ghaddar, an expert on Hezbollah at The Washington Institute. Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and [log into](https://myaccount.nytimes.com/auth/login?response_type=cookie&client_id=vi&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F12%2F02%2Fopinion%2Ftrump-mideast-syria-conflicts.html&asset=opttrunc) your Times account, or [subscribe](https://www.nytimes.com/subscription?campaignId=89WYR&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F12%2F02%2Fopinion%2Ftrump-mideast-syria-conflicts.html) for all of The Times. Thank you for your patience while we verify access. Already a subscriber? [Log in](https://myaccount.nytimes.com/auth/login?response_type=cookie&client_id=vi&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F12%2F02%2Fopinion%2Ftrump-mideast-syria-conflicts.html&asset=opttrunc). Want all of The Times? [Subscribe](https://www.nytimes.com/subscription?campaignId=89WYR&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F12%2F02%2Fopinion%2Ftrump-mideast-syria-conflicts.html).

EPA Rebels posed for photos on the highway north of Hama, home to about 1 million people Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s forces are reportedly engaged in fierce battles with rebels on the outskirts of the major city of Hama. A monitoring group said on Tuesday evening that the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and its allies were “at the gates of Hama”, but on Wednesday it said the military had retaken several villages in a counter-attack backed by intense air strikes. Syrian state media also said troops had pushed back the rebels north of the city, but the rebels denied losing any ground there. Hama is 110km (70 miles) south of Aleppo, which the rebels captured last week after launching a surprise offensive from their stronghold in the north-west. The state-run Sana news agency and the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), a UK-based monitoring group, both reported intense fighting on Wednesday morning around Jabal Zain al-Abadin, a hill about 5km (3 miles) north-east of Hama. The SOHR said the clashes came after government forces launched a counter-attack, during which they were able to push the rebels back almost 10km from the city and recapture two villages near the hill. A spokesman for the rebel’s "Military Operations Division" accused the military of spreading rumours to raise the morale of its troops and insisted rebels were still in control of all locations they had recently taken. An affiliated news channel meanwhile said that five more villages east of Hama had been captured, as well as a base of the 25th Special Mission Forces Division.  On Tuesday, the SOHR reported that there had been “major displacement” from Hama, which is home to about 1 million people, after the rebels reached the city’s outskirts and several civilians were injured by their shellfire. Wassim, a delivery driver who lives in the city, told AFP news agency: "The sounds were really terrifying, and the continuous bombing could be clearly heard”. But he added: "I'll stay home because I have nowhere else to flee to.” The SOHR has said that more than 600 people have been killed, including 107 civilians, and tens of thousands have been displaced since the start of the rebel offensive last Wednesday. The United Nations has expressed alarm at the sudden escalation of Syria’s devastating, 13-year civil war and warned that the situation is “extremely fluid and dangerous”. “If we do not see de-escalation and a rapid move to a serious political process, involving the Syrian parties and the key international players, then I fear we will see a deepening of the crisis," special envoy Geir Pedersen told the UN Security Council on Tuesday. “Syria will be in grave danger of further division, deterioration, and destruction.” BBC Verify tracks week of rebel advances in Syria President Assad has vowed to “crush” the rebels and accused Western powers of trying to redraw the map of the region, while his key allies Russia and Iran have offered their “unconditional support”. Russian warplanes have intensified their strikes on rebel-held areas in recent days, Iran-backed militias have sent fighters to reinforce the government’s defensive lines around Hama, and Iran has said it is ready to send additional forces to Syria if asked. Turkey, which supports the Syrian opposition but has denied reports that it is involved in the HTS-led offensive, has urged Assad to engage in a political process with the opposition to bring an end to Syria’s 13-year civil war. Turkish-backed rebel factions have meanwhile capitalised on the government’s retreat in the north by launching a separate offensive on a pocket of territory near Aleppo that was controlled by a Kurdish-led militia alliance, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). More than half a million people have been killed since the civil war erupted in 2011 after Assad’s government cracked down violently on peaceful pro-democracy protests. Before the start of the rebel offensive, the government had regained control of Syria’s main cities with the help of Russia, Iran and Iran-backed militias. However, large parts of the country remained out of its control. The rebels’ last stronghold was in Aleppo and Idlib provinces, which border Turkey and where more than four million people were living, many of them displaced from government-held areas. The enclave was dominated by HTS, which is designated as a terrorist organisation by the UN, US, Turkey and other countries because it was al-Qaeda's affiliate in Syria until it formally broke ties in 2016. A number of allied rebel factions and jihadist groups were also based there, along with Turkish-backed SNA factions and Turkish forces. In 2020, Turkey and Russia brokered a ceasefire to halt a push by the government to retake the region. That led to an extended lull in violence, but sporadic clashes, air strikes and shelling continued. AFP Smoke rises from the town of Suran, between Aleppo and Hama, on Tuesday HTS and its allies said last Wednesday that they had launched an offensive to “deter aggression”, accusing the government and allied Iran-backed militias of escalating attacks on civilians in the north-west. But it came at a time when the government’s allies were preoccupied with other conflicts. The Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah, which was crucial in helping push back rebels in the early years of the war, has suffered recently from Israel’s offensive in Lebanon. Israeli strikes have also eliminated Iranian military commanders in Syria and degraded supply lines to pro-government militias there. Russia has also been also distracted by the war in Ukraine. Mr Pedersen estimated that the rebels now had de facto control over territory containing an estimated 7 million people, including 2 million in Aleppo city. [ Statue of Syrian president's brother is torn down in Aleppo ----------------------------------------------------------- ](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/cpdvddy27w9o)

The war in Syria was supposed to be over. _Over_, of course, didn’t mean _peace_: During the past few months, the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad and its Russian backers have [launched periodic airstrikes](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/7/relentless-bombing-and-constant-death-a-bleak-start-to-2024-for-syria) on rebel-held areas in the country’s northeast; the US and its Kurdish allies have [continued to wage an ongoing campaign](https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/3951025/us-central-command-conducts-airstrikes-against-several-isis-camps-in-syria/) of airstrikes and special forces operations targeting the remnants of the militant group ISIS; while Israel has continually — particularly since the October 7, 2023, attacks — [struck Hezbollah and targets linked to Iran](https://www.vox.com/israel/378404/gaza-israel-hamas-hezbollah-sinwar-netanyahu-united-nations), both of which are Assad allies. But with [unprecedented conflicts erupting elsewhere in the Middle East,](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/388407/ceasefire-lebanon-israel-hezbollah-biden-netanyahu-us) the war in Syria, which has been fought since 2011 and may have [resulted in the deaths](https://www.reuters.com/article/world/syrian-observatory-says-war-has-killed-more-than-half-a-million-idUSKCN1GO13M/) of more than half a million people and displaced millions more, had become an afterthought. The front lines were fixed: Sunni militant groups controlled the country’s northeast, US-backed Syrian Kurds dominated the Northwest, and Assad held the rest, including his capital, Damascus. Regional governments like the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia that had spent years backing a revolution to overthrow Assad, [had begun to welcome](https://authory.com/app/content/aac980a0a94fd4cb088ac55c457c93166) him — with tacit US support — back to regional summits and gatherings. To the degree Syria was still considered a security threat outside its borders, it was at the nexus of a [flourishing regional drug trade](https://authory.com/app/content/abc4b4a76d1a04d86adadffe5f34fb04e) — promoted and facilitated by the regime. The active phase of the war, in which territory regularly changed hands and Assad’s regime faced a serious threat from foreign-backed rebels, seemed to be over. All that changed last week when a coalition of rebel groups swept into the city of Aleppo, [rapidly pushing back government forces](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/12/01/syria-rebels-assad-aleppo-hama/) and taking control of most of the city. Aleppo, which had been Syria’s largest city before the war, fell to the rebels in the early days of the uprising, and Assad spent roughly four years fighting to take it back, annihilating much of it in the process. Now, he has lost it again in the span of about four days. While international governments called on all sides to “[deescalate](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/12/01/syria-rebels-assad-aleppo-hama/),” the rebel coalition took control of much of the city, as well as [more than 200 surrounding towns](https://x.com/Charles_Lister/status/1863985683519406132), pushing south toward the government-held town of Hama where the regime has been scrambling to set up a new defensive line. Rebels [have freed inmates](https://www.facebook.com/reel/1262217175052190) from the regime’s jails, where many political prisoners had been held, some for years. In response, Syrian and Russian jets [have launched airstrikes](https://news.sky.com/story/syrias-president-vows-to-defeat-terrorists-as-us-calls-for-de-escalation-13264340) on the city, including some that hit hospitals. Vox spoke by phone on Monday with Abdulkafi Alhamdo, an English teacher and opposition activist from Aleppo who gained an [international following](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-38299172) for his video reports, posted on social media, in the early days of the Syrian civil war. Alhamdo had been living in rebel-held Idlib for the past eight years, after fleeing Aleppo when it was taken by the Assad regime. He returned to his hometown for the first time over the weekend, reuniting with family members, some of whom he hadn’t seen since the war began 13 years ago. “Eight years I waited, dreaming every day to go back,” Alhamdo told Vox by phone from Syria. “The whole whole world said that we were over, that the season of revolution is over, that we had no chance. But we made it.” Though the rebels had reportedly been planning their operations for months, it took Washington and other Western capitals by surprise. “It goes to show that sometimes there’s a tendency in Washington for people to sit there and say, ‘Oh, well, you know, the conflict is frozen. We don’t worry about it anymore,’” said Brian Carter, an analyst who tracks militant groups in the Middle East for the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats project. “This offensive shows how flawed that sort of thinking is. It’s going to have big impacts for the region and for US policy.” The second fall of Aleppo is also a warning that the conflicts proliferating around the world should not be considered in isolation. Syria had become overlooked because of the much more active wars in Ukraine, the Palestinian territories, and Lebanon, all of which heavily engaged international attention and energy, from high-level arms shipments to global street protests. But the effects of those wars likely provided an opening for the rebels’ stunning advance, and constrained Assad’s ability to respond to it. And in turn, the latest revival of the Syrian civil war is likely to have reverberations that will be felt far beyond the country’s borders. The conflict began in 2011 as an outgrowth of the regional Arab Spring movement, with protests against the Assad regime that quickly mutated into an insurgency after the regime’s brutal crackdown. Randa Slim, a fellow at Johns Hopkins University’s Foreign Policy Institute who has participated in backchannel negotiations on Syria, told Vox the rapid pace of the offensive reminds her of the momentum the rebels had in the early days of the war in 2012 and 2013. “The opposition was winning, winning, winning, winning, and we were saying, ‘Oh my God, they’re going to get to Damascus soon,’” Slim said. The tide started to turn in 2013 when the rebels were defeated in a [battle at the town of al-Qusayr](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Battle_of_al-Qusayr) by Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Lebanese militia, which had entered the war the previous year on Assad’s side. Today, however, Hezbollah is reeling after more than a year of war with Israel that has resulted in the targeted deaths of much of its [senior leadership](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/372772/hezbollah-israel-pagers-radios-lebanon), including [longtime head Hassan Nasrallah](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2023/10/28/23935157/hezbollah-lebanon-israel-hamas-palestine-gaza-iran-militia-group). “Hezbollah has been dealt a devastating blow in Lebanon, and they have seen many of their fighters leave Syria,” Slim said. Perhaps unsurprisingly, then, the group does not appear to be involved in the regime’s efforts to retake Aleppo. Assad’s other most vital ally has been Russia. It was Russian airpower that [reduced Aleppo to rubble](https://authory.com/JoshuaKeating/What-the-horrors-of-Syria-and-Chechnya-can-tell-us-about-Russias-tactics-in-Ukraine-adaf94e4b9c6948b6a8efbec463c67047) and allowed the regime to retake the city in 2016, another crucial turning point in the war. But Russia has [moved much of its military hardware and personnel](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/19/world/middleeast/russia-syria-israel-ukraine.html) out of Syria since the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022. As this week’s bombardment shows, the Russians aren’t gone entirely, but President Vladimir Putin may be less willing, this time around, to devote significant resources to bailing out Assad at a time when the Ukraine conflict is at a critical juncture. Mouaz Moustafa, executive director for the Syrian Emergency Task Force, a US-based lobbying group backing and coordinating with the Syrian opposition, told reporters in Washington this week, “I believe that the war in Ukraine and the war in Syria is the same war for the same aims against the same authoritarians, and so I know that I many Syrians are grateful for the brave Ukrainians that have been fighting against the Russians, which gave us the breathing space of not having a full Russian air force in Syria.” The international context is vital to understanding how the Syrian military’s defenses collapsed so quickly, Robert Ford, former US ambassador to Syria, told Vox. “The key thing to know is that the Syrian government has long depended on the Russians and the Iranians to provide hard fighting power because the Syrian army itself is really hollowed out after so many years of fighting and defections and corruption,” Ford said. Assad may not be totally helpless, however. [Hundreds of fighters](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iraqi-militias-enter-syria-reinforce-government-forces-military-sources-say-2024-12-02/) from Iran-backed militias in Iraq have reportedly crossed the border to fight the rebels in recent days. Syria is a large country in a strategic location on the sea, between Turkey and Israel, and Iran views it as vital for its regional ambitions. “Do not underestimate the will of the Iranians to throw the kitchen sink at this going forward in order to keep Assad in power,” Slim said. You might think that a major strategic defeat for Iranian and Russian proxies would be enthusiastically cheered by Washington. Instead, the administration has been treating the rebel offensive cautiously, mainly because of who makes up the rebels. “The United States has nothing to do with this offensive, which is led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a designated terrorist organization,” National Security Council spokesperson [Sean Savett said in a statement](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/11/30/statement-by-nsc-spokesperson-sean-savett-on-syria/). HTS, which is indeed the main rebel group involved in the offensive, was, under its former name, Jabhat al-Nusra, an affiliate of al-Qaeda. The group’s leader, Muhammad al-Jolani, [spent five years in an American prison](https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/who-is-syrian-rebel-leader-hts-jawlani-9b157eff) in Iraq for taking part in that country’s anti-US insurgency and has a [$10 million price on his head from the FBI](https://www.fbi.gov/contact-us/field-offices/washingtondc/news/press-releases/up-to-10-million-reward-offered-for-information-on-the-leader-of-the-al-nusrah-front). But supporters of the Syrian opposition say the situation is more complicated than that. The group formally broke with al-Qaeda in 2016, when it changed its name to HTS. It is opposed to both ISIS and [al-Qaeda’s remaining Syrian affiliate](https://www.dni.gov/nctc/ftos/hurras_fto.html). HTS still adheres to and promotes an austere and strict Islamist ideology, but observers say religious minorities, including Christians, have been permitted to exercise their religion in the areas of Idlib they control. Since taking Aleppo, HTS has “said all the right things,” said Ford, noting that Christian services were held on Sunday. The group has published a statement proclaiming “[diversity is our strength](https://x.com/azelin/status/1863565507481264597)” and calling for solidarity with Aleppo’s Kurdish population. Alhamdo, the activist from Aleppo, told Vox he was not a supporter of HTS’s ideology, but gave them credit for their tactical leadership on the battlefield and felt that “they are developing their mentality.” Ford, who spearheaded the move to designate the group — under its former name — as a terrorist organization when he served in the Obama administration, told Vox he “would be hard-pressed now, in 2024, to legally justify a listing” for the group in its current incarnation. Of course, not everyone is likely to buy the group’s rebranding effort. That includes the Biden administration as well as regional governments, like the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, which used to staunchly back the Syrian opposition, but are fearful of the overtly Islamist turn some opposition groups have taken. These are the governments that have also been reaching out to try to normalize relations with Assad. “For the UAE especially, HTS is Islamist. It is the Muslim Brotherhood. It is evil incarnate, no matter how many permutations it has undertaken,” Slim said. “This group was al-Qaeda, and it’s going to take a lot of change to convince the US, or the Saudis, or the Egyptians that it really has changed.” Another group involved in the rebel coalition is the Syrian National Army (SNA), which despite its name is a Turkish-backed proxy militia. Turkey has a more wary relationship with HTS, but reportedly gave the green light to the SNA’s involvement in the operation due to [Assad’s unwillingness to engage in talks](https://www.ft.com/content/b62e834d-e8fe-45a7-be18-3221b3d05515) earlier this year. Turkey’s bigger concern, though, is the Kurdish-dominated statelet that has emerged in Syria’s northeast. The Syrian Kurdish forces, known as the SDF, have been America’s primary allies in the ongoing campaign against ISIS, but Turkey views them as a branch of the PKK, the Turkey-based Kurdish militant group that has fought a decades-long insurgency against the Turkish government. The Turkish military and its proxy forces have launched several incursions over the border into Syria to push the Kurdish forces back. The SDF also controlled some pockets of territory in and around Aleppo but has withdrawn from these as the rebels have advanced. Sinam Mohamad, the representative in Washington for the Syrian Democratic Council — as the predominantly Kurdish government in northeast Syria is known — said she believes Turkey is “planning to occupy some Syrian lands in order to destroy the autonomous administration of northeast Syria.” Despite the HTS’s assurances that Kurds have nothing to fear from Aleppo’s new rulers, she told Vox the group is a “terrorist organization” and that “we are really afraid about the minorities, especially the Kurdish people, in Aleppo city.” Mustafa, the Syrian American activist, argues that the US ought to see the events of the past week as a victory for its interests. “What’s actually happening on the ground is that Syrians are finding our enemies,” he said. He expressed frustration with the Biden administration’s calls on all sides to deescalate the situation. “It makes no sense for me,” he said. “They should ‘deescalate,’ what, the liberation of towns from the Iranians, the Russians and the Assad regime?” Syria has not been a major priority for the Biden administration, as it was for the Obama and Trump teams, and despite national security adviser Jake Sullivan’s pledge on Sunday that the [US would “stay deeply engaged”](https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/meet-press-december-1-2024-n1311152) in the crisis, it’s unlikely this White House will make any major moves on the issue in its remaining month and a half in office. (The [US did launch a strike against Iran-backed militia groups in Syria](https://www.barrons.com/news/us-strike-hits-weapons-in-eastern-syria-pentagon-83972902) on Tuesday, though such attacks have taken place repeatedly this year.) What about the next administration? During his first term, [Trump attempted](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/13/us/politics/mark-esper-syria-kurds-turkey.html) — but was eventually dissuaded by his advisers — from withdrawing the remaining US troops from Syria. (About 900 American military personnel are still in the country as part of the ongoing counter-ISIS mission, operating from Kurdish-held territory in the northeast and from a base near the Jordanian border in the south.) Trump’s selection of former US Rep. Tulsi Gabbard as his director of national intelligence — she’s known for [meeting with Assad in 2017](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jan/26/tulsi-gabbard-bashar-al-assad-syria-democrats) and has [described](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/tulsi-gabbard-claims-met-syrian-president-bashar-al/story?id=45050615) the entire Syrian opposition as “terrorists” — does not indicate much sympathy for the rebels. On the other hand, Trump and his team are also known for their extremely hawkish views on Iran, a close ally of Assad. Mustafa said he had met with Richard Grenell, a former acting director of national intelligence and an influential Trump adviser, to discuss the situation, and [Grenell’s recent posts on X](https://x.com/RichardGrenell/status/1863676856832020978) indicate at least some sympathy to their position. But as always with Trump and foreign policy, the actual policies he pursues in office are [difficult to predict](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/386680/trump-foreign-policy-rubio-hegseth-waltz-gabbard). Despite the Syrian regime’s recent setbacks, Ford told Vox, “I strongly doubt that Damascus, 2024, is going to be Kabul, 2021,” referring to the Afghan capital’s [rapid fall to the Taliban](https://www.vox.com/2021/8/15/22626082/kabul-capital-fall-afghanistan-government-taliban-forces-explained) after the withdrawal of US troops. “I don’t think we’re going to see the HTS militants rampaging through the president’s office,” Ford said. For one thing, the rebel forces may simply not be large enough. For another, Iran and Russia — even in their diminished capacity — are unlikely to completely abandon a regime they see as strategically vital. But even if the rebel offensive does not get much farther than the area it currently controls, their rapid success demonstrates a couple of important lessons. One, the war in Syria is not over. Many of the fighters who entered Aleppo this week were young children when the uprising against Assad began more than a decade ago, and there could well be years more fighting to come. Second, it’s a mistake to consider conflicts like Syria in isolation. The Syrian conflict is often called a “civil war,” which generally means a war fought by factions existing within one country. But at the conflict’s height, it drew in countries from around the region, as well as the United States and Russia, presaging similar lines of conflict in Ukraine. Through the [rise of ISIS](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2014/01/the-rise-of-isis.html), the [massive global refugee crisis](https://www.unrefugees.org/news/syria-refugee-crisis-explained/), and the [spread of illegal drugs](https://authory.com/app/content/abc4b4a76d1a04d86adadffe5f34fb04e), it has had truly global ripple effects. Like a feedback loop, events abroad — particularly in Lebanon and Ukraine — are now helping drive events on the ground in Syria. The latest offensive will have its own ripple effects. Optimistically, it could allow for refugees from Aleppo living abroad and elsewhere in Syria to return home, and weaken or even topple a truly odious regime, one that has [used chemical weapons on its own people](https://www.csis.org/analysis/emerging-trends-chemical-weapons-usage-middle-east) and is believed to have [killed tens of thousands of civilians](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35806229). Pessimistically, it could lead to more chaos and displacement. HTS may yet go back to its former jihadist ways, the [horrific levels of violence](https://www.barrons.com/news/syria-war-death-toll-over-507-000-13-years-on-32a62fe9) we saw years ago could return, more regional actors could be drawn in, and jihadist groups like ISIS could take advantage of the chaos to reconstitute themselves. The world may have thought it was done with Syria. But Syrians themselves are not done, and the world has no choice but to pay attention again. You’ve read 1 article in the last month Here at Vox, we're unwavering in our commitment to covering the issues that matter most to you — threats to democracy, immigration, reproductive rights, the environment, and the rising polarization across this country. Our mission is to provide clear, accessible journalism that empowers you to stay informed and engaged in shaping our world. By becoming a Vox Member, you directly strengthen our ability to deliver in-depth, independent reporting that drives meaningful change. We rely on readers like you — join us.  Swati Sharma Vox Editor-in-Chief

Show key events only Please turn on JavaScript to use this feature Thousands of people fled the central **Syrian** city of **Homs** overnight and into Friday morning, a war monitor and residents said, as rebel forces sought to push their lightning offensive against government forces farther south. They have already captured the key cities of **Aleppo** in the north and **Hama** in the centre, dealing successive devastating blows to president **Bashar al-Assad**, nearly 14 years after protests against him erupted across Syria. The **Syrian Observatory for Human Rights**, a **UK**\-based war monitor, said thousands of people had begun fleeing on Thursday night towards Syria’s western coastal regions, a stronghold of the government. According to Reuters, a resident of the coastal area said thousands of people had begun arriving there from Homs, fearing the rebels’ fast-paced advance.  Syrian rebels celebrate capture of second major city after Assad regime forces withdraw – video On Friday morning, **Israeli** airstrikes hit two border crossings between **Lebanon** and Syria, Lebanon’s transport minister, **Ali Hamieh**, said. The Syrian state news agency, Sana, said the **Arida border crossing** with Lebanon was out of service due to the attack. The Israeli military said it had attacked weapons transfer hubs and infrastructure overnight on the Syrian side of the Lebanese border, saying these routes had been used by the Lebanese armed group **Hezbollah** to smuggle weapons. **Russian** bombing overnight also destroyed the **Rustan Bridge** along the key **M5 highway**, to prevent rebels from using this main route to Homs city, a Syrian army officer told Reuters. “There were at least eight strikes on the bridge,” he added. Government forces were working to strengthen positions around Homs city with fresh reinforcements, he said. Rebels led by the Islamist faction **Hayat Tahrir al-Sham** had pledged to move on to the central city of Homs, a crossroads city that links the capital **Damascus** to the north and Assad’s heartland along the coast. “Your time has come,” said a rebel operations room in an online post, calling on Homs residents to rise up in revolution. More on that in a moment, but first, here are some of the other latest developments: * **The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which relies on a network of sources in Syria, said 826 people, mostly combatants but also including 111 civilians, have been killed in the country since the violence erupted last week.** It marks the most intense fighting since 2020 in the civil war sparked by the repression of pro-democracy protests in 2011. * **Iran says it conducted a successful space launch, the latest for its program the west alleges improves Tehran’s ballistic missile programme.** Iran conducted the launch using its Simorgh programme, a satellite-carrying rocket that had seen a series of failed launches. The launch took place at Iran’s Imam Khomeini Spaceport in rural Semnan province. There was no immediate independent confirmation Friday the launch was successful. * **Iraqi foreign minister, Fuad Hussein, will meet his Syrian and Iranian counterparts on Friday to discuss the situation in Syria**, the Iraqi state news agency said on Thursday. * **A Hamas official said on Thursday that international mediators have resumed negotiating with the militant group and Israel over a ceasefire in Gaza**, and that he was hopeful a deal to end the 14-month war was within reach. Ceasefire negotiations were halted last month when Qatar suspended talks with mediators from Egypt and the US because of frustration over a lack of progress between Israel and Hamas. * **Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, has said that he plans to hold talks on Friday with Turkish and Iranian officials on the situation in Syria.** On Thursday, Lavrov said Moscow was “very much concerned” with a recent escalation of violence in Syria. [Share](mailto:?subject=Middle%20East%20crisis%20live:%20thousands%20flee%20Homs%20in%20central%20Syria%20as%20rebel%20forces%20push%20on&body=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/dec/06/middle-east-crisis-thousands-people-flee-homs-central-syria-rebel-forces-israel-gaza-latest-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-6752a4b98f08d291b2199891#block-6752a4b98f08d291b2199891) Show key events only Please turn on JavaScript to use this feature **Syrian** troops and their **Iran**\-backed allies “suddenly” pulled out of eastern **Deir Ezzor** city and its surroundings on Friday, a war monitor said, as a rebel offensive dealt the government a series of blows, reports Agence France-Presse (AFP). “Syrian regime forces and commanders of Iran-backed allied groups suddenly withdrew from Deir Ezzor city and its countryside with columns of soldiers heading towards central Syria,” **Rami Abdel Rahman**, who heads the **Syrian Observatory for Human Rights** war monitor, told AFP. [Share](mailto:?subject=Middle%20East%20crisis%20live:%20thousands%20flee%20Homs%20in%20central%20Syria%20as%20rebel%20forces%20push%20on&body=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/dec/06/middle-east-crisis-thousands-people-flee-homs-central-syria-rebel-forces-israel-gaza-latest-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-6752e2998f0896ed0c236007#block-6752e2998f0896ed0c236007) **Turkish** president **Recep Tayyip Erdoğan** said on Friday that he hopes **Syrian** rebels will continue their advances against president **Bashar al-Assad**’s forces in [Syria](https://www.theguardian.com/world/syria), reports Reuters. Speaking to reporters after Friday prayers, Erdoğan said he had still not received a positive response from Assad to a call he made earlier this year to meet and normalise ties. “The advances of the opposition are continuing as of now … Our hope is that this walk in Syria continues without any issues,” he said. [Share](mailto:?subject=Middle%20East%20crisis%20live:%20thousands%20flee%20Homs%20in%20central%20Syria%20as%20rebel%20forces%20push%20on&body=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/dec/06/middle-east-crisis-thousands-people-flee-homs-central-syria-rebel-forces-israel-gaza-latest-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-6752deae8f08d291b2199ac3#block-6752deae8f08d291b2199ac3) **Turkey** confirmed on Friday that it would meet **Russian** and **Iranian** foreign ministers for talks on the escalating civil war in **Syria**, reports Agence France-Presse (AFP). The talks will take place in **Qatar** on Saturday. Turkey’s foreign minister, **Hakan Fidan**, “will meet with the Russian and Iranian ministers … for a meeting under the Astana process” on the sidelines of the **Doha** forum, a foreign ministry source told AFP. The Astana process involving the three countries was launched by **Kazakhstan** in 2017 with the aim to find a political solution to the civil war in Syria, which has flared again after a lightning offensive by Islamist-led rebels over the past week. Iranian state media had reported earlier that a meeting was expected on the forum’s sidelines between Turkey, which supports some of the rebels, and **Damascus** allies Iran and **Russia**. Qatar, which gave early support to the rebels after president **Bashar al-Assad**’s government crushed a peaceful uprising in 2011, remains a fierce critic of Assad but is calling for a negotiated end to the fighting, reports AFP. Turkey shares a border of more than 900 kilometres (560 miles) with Syria and currently is home to about three million Syrian refugees. [Share](mailto:?subject=Middle%20East%20crisis%20live:%20thousands%20flee%20Homs%20in%20central%20Syria%20as%20rebel%20forces%20push%20on&body=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/dec/06/middle-east-crisis-thousands-people-flee-homs-central-syria-rebel-forces-israel-gaza-latest-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-6752d9d68f08065f386f2129#block-6752d9d68f08065f386f2129) **Israel**’s military offensive in the **Gaza Strip** has killed at least 44,612 **Palestinians** and injured 104,834 since 7 October 2023, the **Gaza health ministry** said on Friday. The toll includes 32 deaths in the previous 24 hours, according to the ministry. The ministry does not distinguish between civilians and fighters. [Share](mailto:?subject=Middle%20East%20crisis%20live:%20thousands%20flee%20Homs%20in%20central%20Syria%20as%20rebel%20forces%20push%20on&body=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/dec/06/middle-east-crisis-thousands-people-flee-homs-central-syria-rebel-forces-israel-gaza-latest-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-6752d65a8f08d291b2199a7d#block-6752d65a8f08d291b2199a7d) **Iran** aims to send missiles and drones to **Syria** and increase the number of its military advisers there to support president **Bashar al-Assad** in his battle against rebels, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Friday. “It is likely that Tehran will need to send military equipment, missiles and drones to Syria … Tehran has taken all necessary steps to increase number of its military advisers in Syria and deploy forces,” the official said on condition of anonymity. “Now, Tehran is providing intelligence and satellite support to Syria.” [Share](mailto:?subject=Middle%20East%20crisis%20live:%20thousands%20flee%20Homs%20in%20central%20Syria%20as%20rebel%20forces%20push%20on&body=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/dec/06/middle-east-crisis-thousands-people-flee-homs-central-syria-rebel-forces-israel-gaza-latest-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-6752d42d8f0896ed0c235f6a#block-6752d42d8f0896ed0c235f6a) The head of **US**\-backed **Syrian Kurdish** force said on Friday that **Islamic State** group had taken control over some areas in eastern **Syria**. “Due to the recent developments, there is increased movement by Islamic State mercenaries in the Syrian desert, in the south and west of Deir Al-Zor and the countryside of al-Raqqa,” **Mazloum Abdi** said in a press conference, referring to areas in the east of the country, according to Reuters. [Share](mailto:?subject=Middle%20East%20crisis%20live:%20thousands%20flee%20Homs%20in%20central%20Syria%20as%20rebel%20forces%20push%20on&body=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/dec/06/middle-east-crisis-thousands-people-flee-homs-central-syria-rebel-forces-israel-gaza-latest-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-6752d08c8f0896ed0c235f21#block-6752d08c8f0896ed0c235f21) The director of north **Gaza**’s **Kamal Adwan hospital** said **Israel** conducted several strikes on Friday that hit the facility, one of the last functioning health centres in the area, reports Agence France-Presse (AFP). “There was a series of airstrikes on the northern and western sides of the hospital, accompanied by intense and direct fire,” **Hossam Abu Safieh** said, adding that four staff were killed and no surgeons were left at the site. [Share](mailto:?subject=Middle%20East%20crisis%20live:%20thousands%20flee%20Homs%20in%20central%20Syria%20as%20rebel%20forces%20push%20on&body=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/dec/06/middle-east-crisis-thousands-people-flee-homs-central-syria-rebel-forces-israel-gaza-latest-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-6752cb848f0896ed0c235ef0#block-6752cb848f0896ed0c235ef0) The escalation in fighting in **Syria** has displaced about 280,000 people in just over a week, the **UN** said on Friday, warning that numbers could rise to 1.5 million. “The figure we have in front of us is 280,000 people since 27 November,” **Samer AbdelJaber**, head of emergency coordination at the UN’s **World Food Programme (WFP)**, told reporters in **Geneva**. “That does not include the figure of people who fled from Lebanon during the recent escalations” in fighting there, he added. The mass displacement has happened since rebels led by **Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)** launched their lightning offensive a little more than a week ago. That occurred just as a tenuous ceasefire in neighbouring **Lebanon** took hold between **Israel** and Syrian president **Bashar al-Assad**’s ally **Hezbollah**. WFP warned that the fresh mass-displacement inside Syria, more than 13 years after the country’s civil war erupted, was “adding to years of suffering”. AbdelJaber said the WFP and other humanitarian agencies were “trying to reach the communities wherever their needs are”, and that they were working “to secure safe routes so that we can be able to move the aid and the assistance to the communities that are in need”. He also stressed the urgent need for more funding to ensure humanitarians are “ready for any scenario basically in terms of displacements that could evolve in the coming days or months”. According to AFP, AbdelJaber cautioned that “if the situation continues evolving (at the current) pace, we’re expecting collectively around 1.5 million people that will be displaced and will be requiring our support”. [Share](mailto:?subject=Middle%20East%20crisis%20live:%20thousands%20flee%20Homs%20in%20central%20Syria%20as%20rebel%20forces%20push%20on&body=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/dec/06/middle-east-crisis-thousands-people-flee-homs-central-syria-rebel-forces-israel-gaza-latest-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-6752c5698f08d291b219997d#block-6752c5698f08d291b219997d) **Syria**’s army backed by warplanes, including from ally **Russia**, were targeting “terrorist vehicles and gatherings” in **Hama** province on Friday, the defence ministry said, amid a major rebel offensive, reports Agence France-Presse (AFP). “Our armed forces are targeting terrorist vehicles and gatherings in the north and south of Hama province using artillery, missiles and joint Syrian-Russian warplanes,” a ministry statement said, citing a military source. [Share](mailto:?subject=Middle%20East%20crisis%20live:%20thousands%20flee%20Homs%20in%20central%20Syria%20as%20rebel%20forces%20push%20on&body=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/dec/06/middle-east-crisis-thousands-people-flee-homs-central-syria-rebel-forces-israel-gaza-latest-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-6752bfe28f08065f386f2005#block-6752bfe28f08065f386f2005) Rebel military commander **Hassan Abdel Ghani** said in a statement on Telegram on Friday that “our forces continue to march steadily towards the city of Homs”, reports Agence France-Presse (AFP). He said “hundreds” of fighters who had been forced to leave **Homs** years ago after the government retook it had returned “to deter Assad’s aggression against their city”. Homs was once dubbed the “capital of the revolution” because of the large-scale protests in the city when **Syria**’s uprising began in March 2011. The **UK**\-based S**yrian Observatory for Human Rights** said tens of thousands of residents were fleeing Homs on Thursday towards the coast, fearing the rebel advance ([see 7.41am GMT](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/dec/06/middle-east-crisis-thousands-people-flee-homs-central-syria-rebel-forces-israel-gaza-latest-updates?page=with:block-6752a4b98f08d291b2199891#block-6752a4b98f08d291b2199891)). [Share](mailto:?subject=Middle%20East%20crisis%20live:%20thousands%20flee%20Homs%20in%20central%20Syria%20as%20rebel%20forces%20push%20on&body=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/dec/06/middle-east-crisis-thousands-people-flee-homs-central-syria-rebel-forces-israel-gaza-latest-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-6752bd968f08d291b2199948#block-6752bd968f08d291b2199948) The leader of an Islamist rebel alliance driving a lightning offensive in **Syria** has said the goal of the campaign is to overthrow the government of president **Bashar al-Assad**, reports Agence France-Presse (AFP). “When we talk about objectives, the goal of the revolution remains the overthrow of this regime. It is our right to use all available means to achieve that goal,” **Abu Mohammed al-Jolani** told CNN in an interview published on Friday. [Share](mailto:?subject=Middle%20East%20crisis%20live:%20thousands%20flee%20Homs%20in%20central%20Syria%20as%20rebel%20forces%20push%20on&body=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/dec/06/middle-east-crisis-thousands-people-flee-homs-central-syria-rebel-forces-israel-gaza-latest-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-6752b8098f0896ed0c235e46#block-6752b8098f0896ed0c235e46) **Israel**’s military said on Friday that it carried out strikes overnight targeting **Hezbollah** “weapon-smuggling routes” on the **Syria-Lebanon** border, just over a week into a fragile ceasefire in its war with the Lebanese group. Official media in both Lebanon and [Syria](https://www.theguardian.com/world/syria) reported that the air raid put the **al-Arida** border crossing – already hit during the Israel-Hezbollah war – out of service. The Israeli air force “conducted strikes on weapon-smuggling routes and terror infrastructure sites located near the Syrian regime’s crossings at the Syrian-Lebanese border”, the military said in a statement that included a map identifying one of the targets as the al-Arida crossing, reports Agence France-Presse (AFP). Syrian state news agency, Sana, said that “the al-Arida border crossing between Syria and Lebanon is out of service again due to an Israeli attack that targeted it” early on Friday. According to AFP, Lebanon’s official National News Agency said the strike “led to damage to infrastructure” and cut off the border road “again after the bridge was repaired” following a previous attack. Israel has struck border crossings between Syria and Lebanon numerous times, saying it aims to prevent weapons smuggling from Syria into Lebanon. The latest strike came amid mutual accusations between Israel and Hezbollah of violating the terms of a ceasefire agreement that came into effect on 27 November. [Share](mailto:?subject=Middle%20East%20crisis%20live:%20thousands%20flee%20Homs%20in%20central%20Syria%20as%20rebel%20forces%20push%20on&body=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/dec/06/middle-east-crisis-thousands-people-flee-homs-central-syria-rebel-forces-israel-gaza-latest-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-6752b3ef8f08065f386f1fb5#block-6752b3ef8f08065f386f1fb5) A monitor of **Syria**’s war said rebels were just 5km (3 miles) from third city **Homs** on Friday, after controlling two strategic towns on the road linking it to **Hama**, reports Agence France-Presse (AFP). “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and allied factions have reached five kilometres from the outskirts of Homs city after controlling the towns of Rastan and Talbisseh,” said the **Syrian Observatory for Human Rights**, adding that controlling Homs would allow the rebels to “cut off the main road leading to the Syrian coast”, the stronghold of president **Bashar al-Assad**’s **Alawite** minority. [Share](mailto:?subject=Middle%20East%20crisis%20live:%20thousands%20flee%20Homs%20in%20central%20Syria%20as%20rebel%20forces%20push%20on&body=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/dec/06/middle-east-crisis-thousands-people-flee-homs-central-syria-rebel-forces-israel-gaza-latest-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-6752b0498f08d291b21998e2#block-6752b0498f08d291b21998e2) Thousands of people fled the central **Syrian** city of **Homs** overnight and into Friday morning, a war monitor and residents said, as rebel forces sought to push their lightning offensive against government forces farther south. They have already captured the key cities of **Aleppo** in the north and **Hama** in the centre, dealing successive devastating blows to president **Bashar al-Assad**, nearly 14 years after protests against him erupted across Syria. The **Syrian Observatory for Human Rights**, a **UK**\-based war monitor, said thousands of people had begun fleeing on Thursday night towards Syria’s western coastal regions, a stronghold of the government. According to Reuters, a resident of the coastal area said thousands of people had begun arriving there from Homs, fearing the rebels’ fast-paced advance.  Syrian rebels celebrate capture of second major city after Assad regime forces withdraw – video On Friday morning, **Israeli** airstrikes hit two border crossings between **Lebanon** and Syria, Lebanon’s transport minister, **Ali Hamieh**, said. The Syrian state news agency, Sana, said the **Arida border crossing** with Lebanon was out of service due to the attack. The Israeli military said it had attacked weapons transfer hubs and infrastructure overnight on the Syrian side of the Lebanese border, saying these routes had been used by the Lebanese armed group **Hezbollah** to smuggle weapons. **Russian** bombing overnight also destroyed the **Rustan Bridge** along the key **M5 highway**, to prevent rebels from using this main route to Homs city, a Syrian army officer told Reuters. “There were at least eight strikes on the bridge,” he added. Government forces were working to strengthen positions around Homs city with fresh reinforcements, he said. Rebels led by the Islamist faction **Hayat Tahrir al-Sham** had pledged to move on to the central city of Homs, a crossroads city that links the capital **Damascus** to the north and Assad’s heartland along the coast. “Your time has come,” said a rebel operations room in an online post, calling on Homs residents to rise up in revolution. More on that in a moment, but first, here are some of the other latest developments: * **The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which relies on a network of sources in Syria, said 826 people, mostly combatants but also including 111 civilians, have been killed in the country since the violence erupted last week.** It marks the most intense fighting since 2020 in the civil war sparked by the repression of pro-democracy protests in 2011. * **Iran says it conducted a successful space launch, the latest for its program the west alleges improves Tehran’s ballistic missile programme.** Iran conducted the launch using its Simorgh programme, a satellite-carrying rocket that had seen a series of failed launches. The launch took place at Iran’s Imam Khomeini Spaceport in rural Semnan province. There was no immediate independent confirmation Friday the launch was successful. * **Iraqi foreign minister, Fuad Hussein, will meet his Syrian and Iranian counterparts on Friday to discuss the situation in Syria**, the Iraqi state news agency said on Thursday. * **A Hamas official said on Thursday that international mediators have resumed negotiating with the militant group and Israel over a ceasefire in Gaza**, and that he was hopeful a deal to end the 14-month war was within reach. Ceasefire negotiations were halted last month when Qatar suspended talks with mediators from Egypt and the US because of frustration over a lack of progress between Israel and Hamas. * **Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, has said that he plans to hold talks on Friday with Turkish and Iranian officials on the situation in Syria.** On Thursday, Lavrov said Moscow was “very much concerned” with a recent escalation of violence in Syria. 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Islamist insurgents have captured the Syrian city of Hama in a battle to seize a vital location on the road to Damascus, marking the [latest challenge to Bashar al-Assad’s control of the country.](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/05/syrian-rebels-surround-strategic-city-of-hama-after-aleppo-takeover) Militants led by the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) entered the city from the east on Thursday after surrounding it during five days of fighting with forces loyal to Assad. Video circulating online suggested that the insurgents had captured a military airport outside Hama, and released prisoners held in a fearsome state detention facility. As night fell, militant representatives said they had “fully established control over the city of Hama,” and called on police and militias in the city to defect. “This victory will be without revenge and merciful,” said the leader of HTS, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, in a message to the people of Hama. The Syrian defence ministry initially denied that insurgents had enteredHama, calling its defensive lines “impregnable”. But as fighting intensified and drew closer to the city centre, the Syrian army said it had withdrawn, redeploying its forces “to preserve the lives of civilians and not to involve the people of Hama city in these battles”. Positioned on a highway that runs down the western side of Syria towards the capital, Damascus, Hama was the site of mass uprisings against Assad in 2011, and then fierce battles when opposition forces attempted and failed to take control of the city in the ensuing civil war. Hama is also the [site of a notorious 1982 massacre](https://www.theguardian.com/theguardian/from-the-archive-blog/2011/aug/01/hama-syria-massacre-1982-archive), when forces loyal to former president Hafez al-Assad besieged the town to prevent an uprising led by Sunni Muslim opponents of his rule. The sweeping offensive led by HTS has resulted in Assad losing control of Syria’s second largest city, Aleppo, and swaths of the northwest of the country. The UN’s World Food Programme said the escalation has displaced more than 280,000 people, “adding to years of suffering.” The surge in violence has led to fears of an aid crisis, with UN secretary general Antonio Guterres speaking of an urgent need for civilian access to immediate humanitarian support, and a parish priest in Aleppo, Father Bahjat Karakach, voicing concerns that the fear of the bombing is giving way to the [“danger of hunger”](https://www.asianews.it/news-en/Famine-looms-in-wake-of-bombing%2C-warns-Aleppo%27s-parish-priest-62050.html) amid soaring food prices. Guterres urged a UN-facilitated political process to end the bloodshed, asking “all those with influence to do their part for the long-suffering people” of Syria and noting all parties had an obligation to protect civilians. On Friday, Iraqi foreign minister Fuad Hussein will meet his Syrian and Iranian counterparts in Baghdad to discuss the situation in Syria, the Iraqi state news agency reported.The move comes days after [emergency talks were held in Ankara.](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/02/syria-crisis-summit-turkey-iran-russia) Some Iraqi fighters entered Syria early this week to support Assad, Iraqi and Syrian sources told Reuters. Iraq’s Iran-aligned Hashd al-Shaabi paramilitary coalition has mobilised along the border with Syria, saying this was purely preventive in case of spillover into Iraq. Tens of thousands of members of Assad’s Alawite minority community were fleeing Syria’s third city Homs on Thursday, for fear that Islamist-led rebels would keep up their advance, a war monitor said. Homs lies just 40km (25 miles) south of Hama. Britain-based war monitor the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported “the mass exodus of Alawites from Homs neighbourhoods, with tens of thousands heading towards the Syrian coast, fearing the rebel advance”. Khaled, who lives on the city’s outskirts told Agence France-Presse that “the road leading to \[coastal\] Tartus province was glowing ... due to the lights of hundreds of cars on their way out”. Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan told Guterres in a phone call that the conflict in Syria had reached “a new phase.” “The Syrian regime, at this stage, must urgently engage with its own people for a comprehensive political solution,” he said. The sudden losses appear to have unsettled Assad’s longtime backers in Moscow and Tehran, with [Russian forces consumed with their invasion of Ukraine](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/04/moscow-claims-external-forces-seeking-to-escalate-violence-in-syria) and Iran concerned about its forces being targeted by Israeli airstrikes on Syrian territory, which have increased in the last year. Naim Qassem, head of Iranian proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon that has fought in support of Assad, pledged to “stand by Syria to thwart the aggression against it.” The Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, told reporters that Moscow was “closely monitoring”, events in Syria. “Depending on the assessment of the situation, we will be able to talk about the degree of assistance that is needed by the Syrian authorities to cope with the militants and eliminate this threat,” he said. Gregory Waters, an analyst of the Syrian army with the Middle East Institute, said a combination of low morale, low pay, corruption and dysfunction within the chain of command had contributed to the sudden rout of government forces from areas they had controlled for years. The Syrian army, he said, was “completely unprepared”, for the insurgent offensive. Amid reports of rising desertions from the Syrian army or fighters fleeing their positions, Assad issued a decree raising salaries for military personnel by 50% earlier this week. The Syrian president appeared to be seeking to muster a counter-offensive as the fighting drew closer to the capital. Military support from Iran and Russia has been limited when compared with previous iterations of the conflict in Syria, said Waters. “I think it’s hard to see a scenario where forces loyal to the regime in Damascus can regain momentum,” he said. “Even if the Russians and Iranian or Iranian-backed forces get more involved, they’re still limited by their own wars. It feels unlikely to reach the level of support we’ve seen previously.”

For once, use of the word “historic” is justified in describing the [toppling of Bashar al-Assad’s regime](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/08/bashar-al-assad-reported-to-have-fled-syria-as-rebels-say-they-have-captured-damascus) after more than 50 years of brutal dictatorship, 13 years of on-off civil war and a world of suffering. The people of Syria, or most of them at least, are jubilant. They should enjoy the moment. They deserve it. It recalls the celebrations that accompanied the fall of Iraq’s Saddam Hussein and Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi. Yet such memories carry a warning and a threat. The warning is that joy can quickly turn to tears, and liberation to renewed repression, should the sudden collapse of hated but relatively stable authoritarian structures trigger an uncontainable descent into chaos. The threat is that the ensuing political and military vacuum will be contested by self-seeking actors interested not in justice and reconciliation, but power and retribution. In [Syria](https://www.theguardian.com/world/syria), revenge is a dish served hot – and it’s back on the menu. The beginning of the campaign to oust Assad can be traced back to Daraa, in south-western Syria, the scene of a popular revolt in 2011. In that context, the successful advance of the militant group [Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/07/syria-assad-damascus-hayat-tahrir-al-sham-insurgents) from its base in Idlib, in north-west Syria, to the capital, Damascus, is a fitting ending: a popular revolution by the people, for the people. Yet no one can yet tell what kind of Syrian future is envisaged by the HTS leader, [Abu Mohammed al-Jolani](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/06/who-is-abu-mohammed-al-jolani-leader-of-syrian-insurgents-hts), formerly an al-Qaida-linked jihadist and a wanted terrorist rebranded as national liberator. HTS has a record of human rights abuses and authoritarian rule in Idlib. Many Syrians reportedly flocked to the HTS banner as Jolani’s forces drove south. But other groups, with [different aims and interests](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/08/who-are-the-syrian-rebels-who-have-captured-damascus-explained-in-30-seconds), are moving quickly to exploit the crisis. They include a coalition of Kurdish-led nationalist militias in the north-east – the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces; Turkish-backed rebel factions collectively known as the Syrian National Army; and opposition groups in the south, united by hatred of Assad but perhaps not much else. Can the prewar Syrian mosaic – multi-ethnic, multi-religious, unusually tolerant and secular – be pieced back together? Is Jolani a man fit to lead a nation? Who else might prevent an anarchic territorial and political fracturing? No one has answers to these questions as yet. The regime’s prime minister, Mohammed Ghazi Jalali, announced that, unlike the wretched Assad, he is staying put and is ready to work with the insurgents. Brave words, and hopefully not his last. The challenges ahead are truly daunting. The civil war killed more than 300,000 people, although some estimates are double that figure. About 100,000 people are believed missing or forcibly disappeared since 2011. Where are they? A terrible accounting now begins. Half the population – about 12 million people – are displaced. Tens of thousands were detained without trial, tortured, abused. Their prisons are now emptying, sending a tide of angry, embittered, physically and psychologically scarred and vengeful people back into a devastated, already dysfunctional society. Millions of refugees, in [Turkey](https://www.theguardian.com/world/turkey) and Jordan, may head home en masse. Humanitarian and security calamities loom.  Syrian rebels broadcast first news bulletin on state television – video [Destructive foreign meddling](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/10/epic-failure-of-our-age-how-west-failed-syria) – central to the story of Syria since the war began – is another very real threat if things fall apart. Assad’s toppling represents a huge defeat for his main sponsors, Russia and Iran. Vladimir Putin moved into Syria in 2015 after the then US president, Barack Obama, backed off, prioritising counter-terrorism over support for pro-democracy forces. Russian air force bombers, along with Iranian Revolutionary Guards, kept Assad in power. Putin’s reward was military bases and increased leverage. All that’s imperilled now. For Iran, the Syrian collapse is but the latest in a string of reverses linked to Israel’s fightback after the 7 October 2023 Hamas terrorist attacks. Israel’s degradation of Hezbollah in Lebanon, Tehran’s key ally in the so-called region-wide “axis of resistance”, denied Assad another important prop and rendered more vulnerable Iran’s position. Its embassy in Damascus is reportedly under attack. [Its diplomats have fled](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/06/world/middleeast/iran-syria-evacuation.html). Yet neither Russia nor Iran will give up. They will seek to shape the new order to their advantage, regardless of what’s best for Syrian people. Much the same may be said of Israel which, in its campaign against Hamas and other Iranian proxies, has repeatedly bombed what it says are Iranian and Hezbollah targets in Damascus and elsewhere in Syria. Tehran sees Israel’s hand in Assad’s downfall. Though perhaps not deliberately, Israel – following the law of unintended consequences – certainly helped undermine him. Now it worries about a [failed state on its border](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-12-08/ty-article/.premium/assads-fall-deals-a-major-blow-to-the-iranian-axis-but-poses-challenges-for-israel/00000193-a52e-d812-a3d3-afbe0b3e0000), who is in control of Assad’s chemical weapons, and a possibly renewed Islamist jihadist threat. Talking of own goals, that former footballer Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, president of Turkey, is well in the lead. He is thought to have given HTS the green light to launch its offensive after Assad rebuffed his attempts to create a border buffer zone inside Syria. Erdoğan is [obsessed with the Kurdish “threat”](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/07/assad-syria-turkey-iran-russia-diplomats-regime) from northern Syria and Iraq. He may now send more troops across the border. Yet did he really intend to smash the regime and trigger chaos throughout Syria? Maybe Erdoğan could explain how that serves Turkey’s interests. Unless the darker conspiracy theories are believed, the US, Britain and Europe have been just as surprised by events as Assad. That in itself is an alarming intelligence failure – but then again, the west’s record throughout the Syrian war has been one long, abject failure. It largely looked on as the most terrible suffering, mass displacement, war crimes, illegal use of chemical weapons and other horrors unfolded. Its occasional interventions – such as Donald Trump’s one-off 2017 bombing of regime military facilities after a chemical weapons attack in Khan Sheikhun in Idlib – were undertaken more to ease collective consciences than to effect real change. Now the west plays spectator again – although the threat posed by state failure is urgent. “[It’s not our fight](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/7/not-our-fight-president-elect-trump-distances-us-from-syrias-conflict),” says Trump smugly. No use looking, either, to Arab neighbours in the Gulf for help at this critical moment. Just over a year ago, Assad succeeded in [shattering his well-earned international pariah status](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/may/14/more-than-300000-syrian-civilians-died-any-attempt-to-rehabilitate-assad-is-utterly-shameful) at an Arab League summit in Riyadh. He was feted by, among others, the Saudi leader, Mohammed bin Salman. The not-so-diplomatic message was that Assad was back. Rehabilitated. The world could do business with him again. Wrong. Assad was a monster and he still is. Wherever he’s gone, he should not sleep easy. In the meantime, it falls to the Syrian people to save Syria. No one else will. * Simon Tisdall is the Observer’s foreign affairs commentator * _**Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a letter of up to 250 words to be considered for publication, email it to us at [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])**_

 The swift downfall of Bashar al-Assad is reverberating in Syria and throughout the Middle East. Some changes are already apparent. Syrians who fled the country's vicious civil war years ago are lining up at border crossings to return home. The gates are swinging open at the country's notorious prisons, freeing thousands. Syrians are speaking freely after decades of repressive rule. Many more developments are still to come. Here's a preliminary look at what the upheaval could mean for a range of countries that have interests in Syria. ### United States The U.S. military carried out an unusually large airstrike Sunday on Islamic State bases in central Syria. The U.S. says this was done because a group of Islamic State fighters gathered to train, perhaps hoping to take advantage of the turmoil in Syria. The U.S. hit some 75 targets with a variety of aircraft, including massive B-52 bombers. U.S. forces have been battling the Islamic State in Syria for a decade and largedly defeated the group five years ago. About 900 U.S. troops remain to prevent a resurgence of the extremist organization. Most of the Americans are in remote northeastern Syria, with others in the far south. President Biden said Sunday the U.S. would maintain this military presence. He called Assad's ouster both a moment of risk and opportunity, adding that the U.S. would work with Syrians as they try to put together a new government. However, President-elect Trump is striking a different tone. He took to social media over the weekend and said Syria is not a U.S. problem, the U.S. should not get involved, and should just let events play out. But the U.S. is already involved. Those U.S. troops are not just fighting the Islamic State, they've also been protecting vulnerable Syrian civilians. Mouaz Moustafa, with the [Syrian Emergency Task Force](https://setf.ngo/), an American aid group, said the U.S. forces have supplied humanitarian assistance to displaced civilians in a barren area on Syria's southern border. "If you spoke to any of these people and you asked them about the United States military, and you asked them about the relationship between the two, those Syrians love the American military," Moustafa said.  Assad's downfall is the latest in a series of major setbacks for Tehran. Persian Iran has spent the past four decades developing Arab partners and proxies in the region, collectively known as the "axis of resistance." But in the past year, they've been tumbling like dominos. Iran was critical to Assad as he battled to stay in power during the country's civil war that erupted in 2011. Iran's Revolutionary Guards maintained a strong presence in Syria until pulling out last week, just ahead of rebel advances. Iran also used Syria as a bridge to ship weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon. But now Assad is gone, Hezbollah has been greatly weakened by its war with Israel, and another Iranian proxy, Hamas in Gaza, has been devastated by its own war with Israel. "Losing Syria will deal a huge blow to Iran and its proxies in the region. And that's why I think right now the leaders in Tehran must be feeling quite anxious," said [Gonul Tol](https://www.mei.edu/profile/gonul-tol), with the Middle East Institute in Washington. "This is a moment where Iran's regional strategy has been dealt a huge blow, and at a time when the regime at home is being questioned by millions of Iranians."  Syria was Russia's main partner in the region for decades. When the Syrian rebels were threatening Assad's government in 2015, the Russian air force heavily bombed rebel areas and helped secure Assad's hold on power. Russia's President Vladimir Putin said this showed Russia's commitment to supporting its allies. But Russia is now preoccupied with the war in Ukraine and carried out only a few airstrikes as Assad's regime collapsed, demonstrating it was not able or willing to provide significant support. Russia places great value on the naval base and the air base it has on Syria's Mediterranean coast. They are Russia's only military bases in the Middle East, and now they are very much at risk. Russia's previous bombing campaigns inflicted heavy punishment on the rebels — and Syrian civilians — and they may not be inclined to let Russia keep that military presence. In addition, Russia has granted asylum to Assad and his family, which could be a point of contention with a new Syrian government. ### Israel Israel was always at odds with Assad, but considered him the devil they knew. Israel acknowledged that Assad kept the frontier with Israel largely calm, even when the wider region was aflame. Israel will now face a Syria that's highly unpredictable and where Islamist groups could assume a prominent role. For the past year, Israel has been fighting one such group to its south — Hamas in Gaza — and another to its north — Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel is wary of a similar group in Syria. Israel captured the Golan Heights from Syria in the 1967 Mideast war and later annexed the strategic territory. Israel's continued hold on the Golan Heights is certain to remain a major point of friction, regardless of who emerges in power in Damascus. ### Turkey Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has multiple aims in Syria and is well positioned to play a leading role in its future. For starters, he would like to shape a new government in Syria to his liking, said the Middle East Institute's Gonul Tol, author of [_Erdogan's War: A Strongman's Struggle at Home and in Syria._](https://academic.oup.com/book/46145) "Turkey can become the kingmaker," said Tol. "Turkey will stand to benefit both domestically and regionally from a new and, potentially, a very friendly government in Damascus." The Turkish leader would also like to see more than 3 million Syrian refugees in Turkey head home. Some have already begun doing so. In addition, Turkish construction companies are well placed to rebuild Syria, ravaged by more than a decade of war. However, Erdogan's ambitions will depend on Syria restoring relative stability. Under Erdogan, the Turkish military has often operated in Syria against various Kurdish groups that Erdogan views as a potential threats to his rule. If Erdogan chooses to operate against Kurdish factions in Syria, that could undermine efforts to rebuild Syria.